A few years ago I wrote a post that is still far and away my most popular called What if You Only Invested at Market Peaks? I still regularly receive comments, caveats, and questions about this one. A recent follow-up question from a reader asks: What if you only put your money to work at below…
6 Things That Made Me Laugh at EBI East
Investment conferences are usually a great way to network and meet people but often end up being fairly boring with little entertainment value in terms of subject matter. A lot of this stems from the fact that it’s difficult for most people to make this stuff exciting but a large portion of the finance industry…
A Closer Look at Ray Dalio’s 1937 Scenario
Investors often evoke the old saying that history doesn’t repeat but it does rhyme. The problem is even when market scenarios do rhyme the differences far outweigh the similarities because every time is so different in the markets. Bridgewater Capital’s Ray Dalio has evoked the 1937 analogy for a few years now to describe the…
The Increasing Importance of the 401k
Over the past few weeks there have been rumors floating around about potential changes to the 401k retirement contribution limits via the current debate around tax reform. The first rumor was they were going to cap it at $2,400/year, which is ridiculous. Then last week it came out they’re considering increasing it to $20,000 (the current rules…
10 Questions I’m Pondering At the Moment
Some questions I’m pondering at the moment… 1. Which group is in the most trouble if we finally have the lower financial market returns everyone’s been predicting over the coming decade? Pension expected returns are probably way too high. These funds will have their reckoning at some point but I would be more worried about retirees who…
The Great Reckoning in Retail
Next Thursday is our EBI Conference in New York City. The line-up for the conference is stacked — Liz Ann Sonders, Cliff Asness, Jason Zweig, Tim Buckley, Jim Ross, and a whole bunch of other well-known names from the asset management, financial media, and blogging worlds. There’s also NYU professor Scott Galloway who is one of…
Bull & Bear Market Volatility Look Very Different
Volatility is a tricky concept in the markets. Investors are constantly looking at how much markets are fluctuating to gauge where investor sentiment stands as a gauge for complacency, fear, or greed. In terms of predicting the end of a bull market, volatility gives us mixed signals. In this piece I wrote for Bloomberg I…
An Investment Book for the Masses
Buy and hold was the first investing concept where the light bulb immediately went off in my head. It was elegant in its simplicity. It made sense. There are no barriers to entry for this type of strategy. Anyone who has the patience and mental fortitude can invest this way. It has its flaws but…
What the Charts Don’t Tell You
This past week marked the 30th anniversary of the 1987 crash so there were plenty of reflections in the financial media and such. This chart made the rounds on social media: In some ways this type of chart is beautiful. It shows the power of human ingenuity, the benefits of long-term optimism, innovation, and progress…
What Could Send Bitcoin Into the Stratosphere?
I spoke at a conference this week and one of the first questions from the audience was about Bitcoin and my thoughts on cryptocurrencies as an asset class. My go-to phrase to sound intelligent (even though I have no idea) on this one is “Bitcoin may not be the ultimate winner in all of this…
