The Emerging Markets Performance Cycle

Through the end of the day Monday, emerging market stocks (as proxied by VWO) are up 28% in 2017 compared to a 17% gain in U.S. stocks (SPY). While U.S. stocks have been up for 8 years in a row, emerging markets have fallen 4 of the past 8 years. All stock markets are cyclical but EM stocks…

Peer Pressure

Yale Endowment CIO David Swensen doesn’t make too many public appearances so I was excited to run across a back and forth he had with Robert Rubin this past week at the Stephen C. Freidheim Symposium on Global Economics. Swensen touched on a number of subjects investors should be interested in from expected future returns, market…

Animal Spirits Potpourri: Episodes 2-4

For our new podcast, Michael and I plan on releasing one 20-30 minute episode (lifehack: listen at 2x speed if you’re a podcast maniac like me and it’ll take you 10-15 minutes per episode) every Wednesday morning but we’ve been practicing for a few weeks (taping yourself having a conversation is not as easy as…

Being in Control of Your Own Time

The Washington Post had a fascinating profile of investor Bill Miller last week. By my count, this is the 45th comeback for Miller (give or take) according to the financial press. Miller is most well known for his streak of beating the S&P 500 for 15 years in a row as a mutual fund manager…

Introducing My New Podcast: Animal Spirits with Michael & Ben

At our EBI Conference a couple weeks ago I must have been asked by 15-20 people how I find so much time to write. I wrote about this recently but beyond the usual time management/lifehack stuff that people like to read about on the Internet, it really comes down to an interest in the topic…

Caution Alone is Not an Investment Strategy

There are no easy answers in the financial markets right now because of the run-up we’ve experienced over the past number of years. The alternative — lower valuations, higher yields, more bargains, etc. — is, however, worse because that would mean everyone would have less money in their portfolios. We have to play the hand…

One of the Biggest Sources of Market Inefficiency

In the U.S., the standard distance between railroad train tracks is four feet, eight-and-a-half inches wide. The reason for this distance is because that was the measurement used in England and the U.S. railroads were built by British expats. The reason the British used this distance is because it was the same measurement used on…

The Next Bear Market

During the next bear market… …someone will become a hero. A pundit, portfolio manager or resident doomsayer will “call” the crash and nail the timing. It will be mostly luck but will likely lead to a number of TV appearances, speaking gigs, and maybe a book deal or two. …your favorite pundit won’t be able to save…

How to Deal With Market-Moving News

It’s now been a year since the presidential election. While many were predicting the end of the world, U.S. stocks are up 24%, foreign developed stocks are up 23%, and emerging market stocks are up 23%. Allowing political beliefs to guide your investment ideas is not a useful strategy but people also get caught up…

Considerations for Cashing Out of the Stock Market

There was a story in CNN Money last week about a 60-something part-time writer/librarian who cashed out all of the money she had in the stock market. Here’s what she did with it along with her reasoning behind the decision: Now all my money is stashed in U.S. Treasuries, Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (or TIPS bonds),…