The Fed has raised interest rates nine times since December 2015. As much as some prognosticators would have you believe the Fed completely manipulates the interest rate markets, they really only have control over short-term rates. Long-term rates have a mind of their own and the bond market doesn’t always agree with the Fed on…
The Gordon Gekko of Fyre Festival
When Oliver Stone made the movie Wall Street in 1987 he was using the story to show how corrupt the banking system had become. The Gordon Gekko character, played brilliantly by Michael Douglas, was created as an over-the-top, egomaniacal, greed-filled villain to showcase what’s wrong with the financial world. Stone has since admitted in interviews…
Animal Spirits Episode 65: Stay the Course
On this week’s Animal Spirits with Michael & Ben we discuss: Jack Bogle’s legacy. Some unknown stories from Bogle’s latest book about Vanguard’s humble beginnings. How Dan Egan budgets his spending each month. Why you should treat saving money like a regular bill payment. Are student loans holding back the housing market? What happens if…
The Long-Term in International Stocks
Last week I wrote about how diversification is (almost) undefeated by showing how your chances of seeing a positive return in both stocks and a simple 60/40 stock/bond portfolio have gone up historically as you extend your time horizon: Because this was a US-centric portfolio, the obvious follow-up question (which many of my astute readers asked)…
How to Be Memorable
My wife and I attended a wine tasting party a few weeks ago at a friend’s house (21-year-old me can’t believe 37-year-old me just typed that but here we are). Every couple brought the wine of their choice to the party and all of the bottles were then placed in an individual bag with a number…
Putting in the Reps
One of the best parts of the on-demand entertainment world we now live in is that you can consume content from people in different formats than you could in the past. When I was in high school and college Late Night with Conan O’Brien show was appointment viewing for me and my friends. His first…
What I Learned From Jack Bogle
Jack Bogle, the legendary founder of Vanguard, passed away yesterday at age 89. He may not be the most well-known investor but he’s had by far the biggest impact on the investing public. Warren Buffett said it best in his 2016 annual report: If a statue is ever erected to honor the person who has…
Animal Spirits Episode 64: The Richest 50%
This week’s Animal Spirits with Michael & Ben is sponsored by YCharts: Mention Animal Spirits and receive 20% off your subscription price when you initially sign up for the service. We discuss: Is WeWork in trouble? How dominant was Sears before their downfall? What’s the relationship between mortgage rates and home prices? Is demographics really destiny? How has…
Diversification is (Almost) Undefeated
A reader asks: Can this chart be updated easily? Also, are the stats similar for a 60/40 portfolio as they are for just the stock market? This scatterplot would also be cool to see redone with a balanced portfolio. The chart in question here is one I’ve used on a number of occasions, which shows the…
Are Market Moves Happening Faster?
The S&P 500 hit an all-time high on September 20, 2018. A little more than two months later, after a shellacking on Christmas Eve, it had fallen 19.8%. The 95 days from peak to trough was the fastest bear market since the S&P fell 19.3% in just 45 days in 1998. Since bottoming (for the…
