Some random thoughts on the current state of the markets… 1. This is why you own bonds. Here’s the aggregate U.S. bond market versus the S&P 500 and Russell 2000 ETFs over the past 3 months: In the past, people probably thought they owned bonds for the steady income stream. That may still be the case for…
Big Up Days In The Stock Market
On this week’s Animal Spirits podcast Michael and I predicted some vicious countertrend rallies in the midst of the current bear market in stocks. Here’s the tape: There was some fortuitous timing with the release of the show and the market action that followed. We taped this one a little early because of the holidays…
Animal Spirits Episode 61: The Bear Market
On this week’s Animal Spirits with Michael & Ben we discuss: The carnage in the stock market. Does this mean we’re going into a recession? How historically bad is the latest quarter in stocks? Why young people should be happy about the drop in stock prices. Why the Fed can’t win no matter what they…
My 2018 Recommendations
At the end of each episode of Animal Spirits, Michael and I give our recommendations for things we’ve been reading or watching. I’ve also been known to give a review on Twitter or here on the blog. So I decided to put together a list of my favorite recommendations for TV shows, movies, and books I’ve…
Talk Your Book: Breaking the Market Cap
Today’s Animal Spirits: Talk Your Book is presented by Exponential ETFs: We discuss: Why the S&P 500 is so hard to beat. Why such a small number of companies account for such a large portion of market returns. How could you reweight the S&P 500 to get a smaller, more high-quality strategy? The thinking behind…
Buying When Stocks Are Down Big
Captain Obvious here: It hasn’t been a great quarter for the stock market. The S&P 500 is down roughly 17%. There have been more than 370 quarterly returns since 1926. If the quarter were to end today, this would be the 14th worst in that time frame. The list of the other big down three month periods…
Where to Find Yield on Your Savings
Robinhood announced last week they were rolling out checking and savings accounts with no fees that pay 3% interest. A day after the announcement almost six-hundred thousand people signed up for the program on their waitlist. Ashton Kutcher, an #investor in the company, had this to say: (update: this tweet was later deleted) Robinhood backtracked on…
A History of Fed Rate Hikes
Yesterday the Fed hiked short-term interest rates for the ninth time since 2015. The stock market did not seem to care for this fact, as the S&P 500 fell more than 1.5% while the Nasdaq was off over 2.1%. Considering stocks are already in the midst of a double-digit drawdown, this result didn’t exactly provoke feelings…
Animal Spirits Episode 60: Everyone Should Earn 3%
On this week’s Animal Spirits with Michael & Ben we discuss: Robinhood’s debacle of a rollout for their checking & savings accounts Or was this all a PR stunt? What does Ashton Kutcher think? Do millennials even care about banking regulations? Where can you find higher interest rates for your savings? What can fund flows tell…
Disruption in the Bond Market
Last week I wrote that the one constant in the stock market is losses. And not just minor losses but losses of the double-digit variety. The S&P 500 has experienced at least one double-digit drawdown in half of all years going back to 1950. The bond market tells a different story. Investors in high-quality bonds…
