Random Thoughts on the Crash As We Catch Our Breath

Some random thoughts as we get a couple of days off from paying attention to the markets: Will the winner-takes-all only get worse from here? One of the big worries before the current crisis hit, which seems rather trivial at the moment, is the growing concentration at the top of the stock market in just…

What If You Buy Stocks Too Early During a Market Crash?

I know of a professional trader who foresaw the Great Recession, went to cash in the summer of 2008 before things got crazy and came up with a wonderful plan to put his money back to work at the lows. He planned on putting his cash into a simple S&P 500 index fund in 25%…

What’s Causing All the Panic Buying & Selling of Stocks?

When I wrote this piece for Fortune a couple of weeks ago it seemed apt to compare the market volatility to the ups and downs of the European debt crisis of 2011. At the outset of this downturn, we were seeing 3% and 4% moves in both directions. Then last week the market said to…

Returns From the Bottom of Bear Markets

We are now in the 13th worse bear market since the late-1920s with losses just shy of 30%. It would take another 15% drop from here to get to a 40% loss. It would take another 30% drop from here to get to a 50% loss. I don’t know if this is going to happen and neither…

The Power of the Human Spirit

A number of years before the onset of World War II, Winston Churchill warned the House of Commons about the dangers of a potential German invasion, describing London as, “the greatest target in the world, a kind of tremendous, fat, valuable cow, tied up to attract the beast of prey.” A few months later he…

Animal Spirits: Is This Worse Than 2008?

This week’s Animal Spirits with Michael & Ben is supported by YCharts: Mention Animal Spirits and receive 20% off your subscription price when you initially sign up for the service. We discuss: When chasing yield goes bad Worries about the credit markets Why this period gives me more anxiety than 2008 Is work from home here to stay?…

Why You Can’t Always Swing at the Fat Pitch During a Crisis

CNBC reported last night that the biggest banks in the United States would be stopping their buybacks to shore up their balance sheets because of the crisis: The group — which includes JPMorgan Chase, Bank of America, Citigroup, Morgan Stanley, Wells Fargo, Goldman Sachs and two other banks — said in a statement that the pandemic was an “unprecedented challenge.” “The COVID-19…