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Returns From the Bottom of Bear Markets

We are now in the 13th worse bear market since the late-1920s with losses just shy of 30%. It would take another 15% drop from here to get to a 40% loss. It would take another 30% drop from here to get to a 50% loss. I don’t know if this is going to happen and neither…

Talk Your Book: Greg Zuckerman on Jim Simons & Renaissance Technologies

On this Talk Your Book we spoke with the Wall Street Journal’s Greg Zuckerman about his new book The Man Who Solved the Market: How Jim Simons Launched a Quant Revolution.  We discussed: Zuckerman’s approach to writing this book Does Medallion have the greatest track record in history? The difference between Ren Tech and high-frequency…

Re-Framing the Next Downturn

It feels like people have been worried about the next recession every day since the last one was over. I get it. Recessions aren’t fun. But you can’t constantly remain in the fetal position simply because you know the economy and markets eventually have a downside. Here’s a piece I wrote for Fortune to provide…

Animal Spirits Episode 78: The Re-Readables

This week’s Animal Spirits with Michael & Ben is sponsored by YCharts: Mention Animal Spirits and receive 20% off your subscription price when you initially sign up for the service. We discuss: Is inflation dead? Does a more mature U.S. economy mean lower interest rates and inflation for the foreseeable future? What should we call our new podcast…

Why Are IPOs Oversubscribed?

Levi Strauss created the first pair1 of blue jeans in 1873. He went to San Francisco to make his money in the gold rush but found more success using denim and rivets to make pants that would last longer. They were actually called waist overalls until 1960 when baby boomers began calling them jeans. In…

Are Super Bowl Ads Worth The Money?

The average cost of an ad for this year’s Super Bowl between the New England Patriots and LA Rams1 is estimated to be more than $5 million. That’s an enormous cost for 30 seconds of ad space. It seems insane corporations would spend this kind of money but the data suggests these commercials are worth…