Government bond yields remain unbelievably low across the maturity spectrum: The correlation between starting yields and future long-term returns is very high, meaning you can use these rates as a decent approximation of forward bond returns. In other words, don’t expect much from the bond portion of your portfolio. When you compare today’s yields with…
Ben Carlson
Inequality Everywhere You Look
This crisis is making inequality worse in a number of ways.
The Simplest Way to Make Up For Portfolio Losses
The importance of saving during down markets.
Animal Spirits: Too Young, Too Dumb & Too Inexperienced
We’re back for show number two of this week. We discuss: Corporation inequality Retail spending is making a massive shift to online shopping Why aren’t video game company stocks up more? Deflation is here Inequality in the unemployment numbers Pain for even the very best restaurants Why the government needs to extend unemployment benefits and…
Nothing Fails Quite Like Success in the Stock Market
A reader sent me an old piece I wrote in early-2014 that contained a stat that made me do a double-take: The energy sector outperformed the S&P 500 by nearly 7% per year with nearly the same standard deviation. This seems almost impossible to believe at the moment. Oil prices went negative this year. Energy…
Animal Spirits: Fallen Angels
Michael and Ben discuss the survival of airlines, why PMs hate the Fed and more.
Does Better Virus Response Lead to Better Stock Market Outcomes?
A country-by-country look at stock market performance in the year of the pandemic.
Does Covid-19 Prove the Stock Market is Inefficient?
Robert Shiller and Burton Malkiel debate market efficiency.
The 5 Types of Investors In This Market
Market prices are created by millions of different opinions, time horizons, risk appetites, investment styles and personality types. These differences are what make a market. Otherwise, there would be few transactions and a lack of liquidity. Investor sentiment is often based not only on what’s going on in the markets but also how people position…
Some Thoughts, Worries and Questions About the Crisis
What is going to happen to schools in the fall?
