Ben Carlson

Fighting the Last War

“The most instructive, indeed the only method of learning to bear with dignity the vicissitude of fortune, is to recall the catastrophe of others.” – Polybius One of my favorite expressions about the behavior of investors is that we are constantly fighting the last war. The representative heuristic causes us to overweight recent events when…

The Long Run Revisited

“It is better to be roughly right than precisely wrong.” – John Maynard Keynes Jeremy Siegel first released Stocks for the Long Run in 1994.  There are people that partially credit this book with some of the stock mania that took hold in the late-1990s. Siegel did call the bubble in tech stocks before the…

Perma-Arguments

“Never argue with stupid people.  They will drag you down to their level and then beat you with experience.” – Mark Twain No one knows what’s going to happen in the future, especially when it comes to the financial markets. That’s why there will always be topics up for debate. There are some people in…

The Style Box of the Future

“The bottom line is that since diversification is the only free lunch in investing, you might as well eat a lot of it.”   – Larry Swedroe I was recently asked if there’s any room in the financial advice industry for innovation at the product level. Specifically, what do I think will be the biggest changes…

Charlie Munger on Human Misjudgement

“We can’t change the world. The only thing we can change is ourselves, by trying to get a better understanding of our own messed-up wiring.” – Guy Spier In last week’s Intelligent Investor column for the Wall Street Journal, Jason Zweig discussed value investor Guy Spier’s journey to reinvent himself as both a thinker and…

What Does The Bursting of a Bond “Bubble” Look Like?

“Investing in bonds is a hedge against bad investment decisions. They may not earn a high return going forward and may even lose some in the next bear market, but I believe the psychology of holding bonds will stop some people from doing the wrong thing at the wrong time. A portfolio with a fixed…