Great to See You Active Management – Are You Still Alive?

In the summer of 2007, the markets experienced a huge dislocation that was something of a precursor to the financial crisis. Many of the largest, well-known quant hedge funds all started blowing up at the same time. Everything they were buying was going down while everything they were shorting was going up, causing massive losses…

10 Things You Can’t Learn From a Backtest

We’re currently living in the golden age of the backtest. Things have never been better for quantitatively-inclined investors. There are algorithms on top of algorithms. We’ve never had so much historical market or corporate data available at the click of a button. Computing power is off the charts. Entry-level analysts can now perform calculations with…

How Market Crashes Happen

Charlie Munger has long championed the benefits of acquiring worldly wisdom through the development of mental models which utilize a number of different subjects — physics, biology, sociology, psychology, finance, philosophy, literature, etc. — to understand the world and make better decisions. As far as I’m concerned, Michael Mauboussin is Munger’s heir apparent in this…

The Two Types of Knowledge in the World

  The past few years have been rough on movie lovers like me. The majority of new releases are unoriginal and follow a worn out script. Hollywood’s formula is to remake old movies or simply come out with as many sequels as possible to try and replicate past successes. Take a look at the number…

How To Sell Finance Books Like Harry Dent

In early-2009, as it seemed like the financial world was teetering on the edge of collapse, I was asked by a family member what I thought about a new book by Harry Dent called The Great Depression Ahead: How to Prosper in the Crash Following the Greatest Boom in History.  My response to this inquiry was…

10 Questions for 2017

I’ve spent the past few weeks skimming all sorts of 2017 market outlooks. Lots of people are looking for answers, but most investors aren’t even bothering to ask the right questions. I don’t know what’s going to happen so here are 10 questions I’m pondering going into the new year: 1. Is President Trump going…

Ponzi Schemes & Ego

“The first product of self-knowledge is humility.” – Flannery O’Connor By the end of the Civil War, Ulysses S. Grant and William Tecumseh Sherman were two of the most respected men in America. They were the architects of the Union’s victory over the Confederate army. However, after the war, they took very different paths. Both were…

The 2016 Financial Market Awards

Here are my 2016 Financial Market Awards winners. The Worst Start to a Year Ever: The S&P 500 through its first 28 days this year Michael Batnick put this one together for our latest client call: It didn’t last… Best Streak: The S&P 500 is up 8 years in a row. This one is a repeat winner….

The Hierarchy of Investment Difficulty

Being the “investment guy” in the family means I’m often approached during the holidays or at parties with questions about the markets. My most recent question was about a sector fund investment and its prospects going forward. I’m sure you could come up with any number of intelligent-sounding narratives to describe which sectors will perform…

Investing When It Doesn’t Make Any Sense

“If you don’t know when you’re wrong, you certainly don’t know when you’re right.” – Adam Robinson I love finding new ways to explain old topics. The world is constantly changing but the basic principles are almost always the same. So whenever I read or hear a novel explanation of an age-old topic I’m always…