Forecasting Your Emotions

“People who rely heavily on forecasts seem to think there’s only one possibility, meaning risk can be eliminated if they just figure it out.” – Howard Marks

It Is Always The Same Novel

The Nobel Prize for Literature was awarded this morning to a French author by the name of Patrick Modiano. Modiano has written more than 20 novels, with the first one published in 1968. What I found interesting about his story is that he said he is “always writing the same book.” Here’s more: Modiano says…

Feast or Famine in the Fairholme Fund

It was a tough couple of days for star portfolio manager Bruce Berkowitz’s Fairholme Fund (FAIRX) last week. The fund lost nearly 10% on the week, with much of that loss coming on a single day. Over the past month it’s down more than 13% even though the S&P 500 is down less than 2%.

Global Diversification: Accepting Good Enough to Avoid Terrible

The U.S. stock market is once again trouncing the broader international markets this year. Through the end of September, the total U.S. stock market, as measured by the Vanguard Total Stock Market Fund, is up nearly 7% while the Vanguard Total International Fund is basically flat on the year. Since the beginning of 2013, the…

The Post-2008 Investment Conference Line-Up

The severity and depth of the financial crisis caused a shift in attitude for many in the financial world. Many things changed for investors following the crash, but especially the way we think about risk. It was a scary time and for many the fear never went away. The intellectual case for fear has always…