Captain Obvious here: It hasn’t been a great quarter for the stock market. The S&P 500 is down roughly 17%. There have been more than 370 quarterly returns since 1926. If the quarter were to end today, this would be the 14th worst in that time frame. The list of the other big down three month periods…
Bear Markets/Crash
The One Constant in the Stock Market
Something rare happened in the S&P 500 this year. The index has experienced a double-double-digit drawdown (kind of like double secret probation?) for the first time since 1990. That means the S&P 500 fell 10%, made those losses back, only to fall 10% yet again. The only other years on record I could find when this happened…
Surveying the Damage in Stocks
Stocks are getting massacred. Absolutely slaughtered. Pounded into submission. Markets are in turmoil. Investors are panicked, shellshocked and dare I say, jittery. These are some of the words and phrases you hear bandied about when stocks are in the midst of a freefall. Fun times. Let’s take a look at the numbers to see how…
Things You See During Every Market Correction
From the peak close in late-September through the week before Halloween, the S&P 500 fell around 10% for a quick little correction. Over the ensuing 10 trading days stocks have now bounced 6%. Does this mean the correction is now over? Was it simply another flash correction? I don’t know and neither does anyone else…
When Stocks Fell 10%…
As of the market’s close yesterday the S&P 500 was down 9.4%. Not quite a 10% correction but it’s a stone’s throw away. The question all investors would like to know is how much further this downturn has to go. The answer is I don’t know and neither does anyone else. But we can look…
Can the Stock Market Predict The Next Recession?
As of this morning’s cold open, the S&P 500 is down 7.5% or so. The Fed is hiking interest rates. Mortgage rates are rising. Homebuilder stocks are getting annihilated. The economic recovery is well into its ninth year. The unemployment rate is the lowest it’s been in 50 years. People are asking — are the markets predicting…
Allow Myself to Contradict…Myself
A reader asks: Does your Bond Bear Market note contradict your previous case for bonds? The conclusions are unclear to me. I can see how this could be confusing. In a post last week I discussed the potential for bonds to do well if all the right pieces fall into place which was followed up…
The Worst Kind of Bear Market
On a recent episode of his show, Behind the Markets, WisdomTree’s Jeremy Schwartz made a comment about a stat from one of Jeremy Seigel’s books. He discussed how in real terms, bonds in the U.S. have actually experienced a much longer bear market than anything witnessed in the stock market. This makes sense when you…
Who Benefits From a Market Correction?
Jerry Seinfeld is the ultimate “it’s funny because it’s true” comedian. His night guy vs. morning guy slays because this is me all the time: We all have competing ideas and beliefs in our heads on a regular basis. Enjoying yourself in the present vs. delaying gratification for the future. Working hard vs. playing hard. Your…
Big Down Days
Yesterday the S&P 500 fell 3.29%. It was the worst single-day loss since early February when stocks fell 3.75%. Looking back at the daily returns on the S&P 500 since the fall of 1928 shows stocks have seen 325 days with losses of 3% or worse. That means it happens roughly three-and-a-half times a year…
