I have no idea what’s going to happen — in world events, politics, or the market — in 2019 (and neither does anyone else). This baked in uncertainty is what makes the financial markets equal parts maddening and fun to prepare for. There’s no way to reduce the inherent uncertainty about the future or know…
Ben Carlson
Can The Unemployment Rate Signal a Recession?
We’re closing in on the 10th year of this economic expansion. A few more months and this will officially be the longest economic expansion in modern U.S. history. The U.S. economy has now experienced 99 straight months with positive gains in the job market. We’re fast approaching 20 million jobs added since the start of this…
2017 vs. 2018 in the Stock Market
It takes the Earth roughly 365 days to orbit the sun so that’s what we’ve agreed upon as the definition for a full calendar year. Orbiting the sun has nothing to do with the financial markets but people still spend an inordinate amount of time figuring out what the new year will bring in the…
Animal Spirits Episode 62: The Market Swoon
This week’s Animal Spirits with Michael & Ben is sponsored by YCharts: Mention Animal Spirits and receive 20% off your subscription price when you sign up. We discuss: Steve Mnuchin’s bizarre statement on the banks. Big up and down days in the market. What’s the biggest cause of the market’s downturn? Are algos really to blame…
Mindless Resolutions
The book Mindless Eating gives a stat that can’t possibly be verified but I still kind of believe it. It estimates that 95% of people who lose weight on a diet end up gaining it back. Maybe this is one of those stats that’s a little deceiving like the 50% divorce rate. That stat is so…
The Forgotten Bear Markets
After closing at an all-time high on September 20, the S&P 500 entered a bear market on Christmas Eve. The technical definition is a 20% peak-to-trough drawdown, but I’m willing to give this 19.8% fall the benefit of the doubt. There was a decent rally the rest of the week, but regardless if this was THE…
5 Thoughts on the Market Downturn
Some random thoughts on the current state of the markets… 1. This is why you own bonds. Here’s the aggregate U.S. bond market versus the S&P 500 and Russell 2000 ETFs over the past 3 months: In the past, people probably thought they owned bonds for the steady income stream. That may still be the case for…
Big Up Days In The Stock Market
On this week’s Animal Spirits podcast Michael and I predicted some vicious countertrend rallies in the midst of the current bear market in stocks. Here’s the tape: There was some fortuitous timing with the release of the show and the market action that followed. We taped this one a little early because of the holidays…
Animal Spirits Episode 61: The Bear Market
On this week’s Animal Spirits with Michael & Ben we discuss: The carnage in the stock market. Does this mean we’re going into a recession? How historically bad is the latest quarter in stocks? Why young people should be happy about the drop in stock prices. Why the Fed can’t win no matter what they…
My 2018 Recommendations
At the end of each episode of Animal Spirits, Michael and I give our recommendations for things we’ve been reading or watching. I’ve also been known to give a review on Twitter or here on the blog. So I decided to put together a list of my favorite recommendations for TV shows, movies, and books I’ve…
