They say that sentiment tends to follow price which is why when markets rallied following the presidential election it was immediately called the Trump Rally. I took a look at this rally in late-February to dissect how things changed at that time. Many of these assets have since lost their gains or new leadership has…

Following the financial crisis, everyone realized they needed to pay more attention to the economy to better understand the markets. The problem is much of what now constitutes “macro” in the investment world has hurt more investors than it’s helped. The majority of what you hear from the economics profession these days borders on useless….

A few weeks ago I took the other side of the phenomenal growth in index funds by playing devil’s advocate on some of the problems with this growth. A few people asked me to expand on one issue in particular: “Index” can be a subjective term. Most of the money is going into traditional index…

Following up on my post about preparing for a bear market, a reader asks: Do you really think bonds will not correlate with stocks in a bear market this time? Rates are historically low and likely to go up? Just seems like bonds will crater too. Of course, one will collect the meager interest. This…

I finally got around to reading Bull: A History of the Boom and Bust, 1982-2004 by Maggie Mahar and it was well worth my time. This book provided a fantastic history lesson on the years preceding and during likely the greatest bull market the U.S. will ever see. It’s great to have the ability to have a…

There’s been a lot of talk in finance circles recently about how the economy and stock market are turning into a winner takes all venture. Mark Hulbert wrote a piece this week for the Wall Street Journal with a chart that sums this idea up nicely: Not only are profits becoming more concentrated but the…

Over the long-term currency fluctuations between the various countries tend to balance out. But in the short-to-intermediate-term currencies can fluctuate all over the place and see large relative gains or losses. As investing becomes more global it’s important for investors to understand how currency fluctuations can affect the financial markets in different ways. The following…

There are all sorts of rules of thumb about saving for retirement. There’s the 4% withdrawal rule. Another rule states you need to have saved 20-25x the annual income you want to spend in retirement. Then there’s the one that says you’ll need to replace 80% of your current income from your portfolio in retirement….

I had a great conversation on Friday afternoon with Jeremy Schwartz on his Sirius XM show, Behind the Markets. Nir Kaissar was also on the show so we had a nice back and forth on institutional asset management. Jeremy asked me why the institutional investment industry tends to lean towards complexity when building portfolios or offering…

I’m fascinated with financial market history because learning about prior cycles gives you a sense about how some things never change while others are in a constant state of flux. It’s both always and never different this time. This week I read a number of thought-provoking pieces that discussed market history in terms of where…