Narratives often drive the economy but figuring out the prevailing narrative has never been harder.
Macro/Econ
Re-Framing the Next Downturn
It feels like people have been worried about the next recession every day since the last one was over. I get it. Recessions aren’t fun. But you can’t constantly remain in the fetal position simply because you know the economy and markets eventually have a downside. Here’s a piece I wrote for Fortune to provide…
Will Millennials Get Destroyed During the Next Recession?
I would be more worried about baby boomers during the next recession than millennials.
Investing in a Negative Interest Rate World
How should investors think about investing in a negative interest rate environment?
Re-Kindled: Superforecasting
Michael and Ben review the lessons from Superforecasting by Philip Tetlock.
A Short History of Fed Rate Cuts
A history of Fed interest rate cuts since 1960.
My Questions About Negative-Yielding Debt
I have more questions than answers about all the negative-yielding government debt in the world.
The Upside of a Recession
Looking at the glass as half full for the next recession.
Why Do We Need Inflation?
A reader asks: Why do we need inflation? This is a good question because wouldn’t we all be better off if prices were to fall? It’s not always that easy.
What If Interest Rates Don’t Rise Again For a Long Time?
Josh Brown and Ben Carlson discuss a what-if about the potential ramifications if the cost of capital remains low for an extended period of time.
