The Animal Spirits book club re-read Superforecasting: The Are & Science of Prediction by Philip Tetlock and Dan Gardner for this week’s Re-Kindled podcast.
We discuss:
- Why forecasting is so difficult
- The difference between entertainment and advice
- Why it’s easier to be a BS artist than a good forecaster
- Why people have a hard time understanding probabilities
- Why stories have such a hold on our psyche
- Where the phrase “dart-throwing monkey” came from
- The traits required to make better forecasts
- Why it’s wise to take admissions of uncertainty seriously
- Mental time travel
- The different types of charlatans
- Hindsight bias and illusions
- The importance of a growth mindset and much more
Listen here:
Stories mentioned:
And feel free to read along with our next books, Blink and The Tipping Point, both by Malcolm Gladwell.
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