Re-Kindled: Superforecasting

The Animal Spirits book club re-read Superforecasting: The Are & Science of Prediction by Philip Tetlock and Dan Gardner for this week’s Re-Kindled podcast.

We discuss:

  • Why forecasting is so difficult
  • The difference between entertainment and advice
  • Why it’s easier to be a BS artist than a good forecaster
  • Why people have a hard time understanding probabilities
  • Why stories have such a hold on our psyche
  • Where the phrase “dart-throwing monkey” came from
  • The traits required to make better forecasts
  • Why it’s wise to take admissions of uncertainty seriously
  • Mental time travel
  • The different types of charlatans
  • Hindsight bias and illusions
  • The importance of a growth mindset and much more

Listen here:

Stories mentioned:

And feel free to read along with our next books, Blink and The Tipping Point, both by Malcolm Gladwell.

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