Asking The Wrong Question

“A goal without a plan is just a wish.” – Antoine de Saint-Exupery This was the headline and first few sentences from an AP story last weekend: Time to Ditch Rising Stocks, or Stick With Them? Is it time to cash out of stocks? The market has nearly tripled in a little over five years, and…

Even Bull Markets Aren’t Easy

“Risk, then, comes in two flavors: “shallow risk,” a loss of real capital that recovers relatively quickly, say within several years; and “deep risk,” a permanent loss of real capital.” – William Bernstein It’s been a long time since the S&P 500 has experienced a double-digit loss. The last one ended in October of 2011,…

Charlie Munger’s Investing Principles

“If you can get good at destroying your own wrong ideas, that is a great gift.” – Charlie Munger Warren Buffett famously ran a partnership for a small group of investors before turning Berkshire Hathaway into his investment vehicle of choice. He produced extraordinary results for himself and his investors. Many don’t realize this but…

Buying Insurance After a Disaster Strikes

“Investors are always fighting the last war, when in fact all crises are different.” – Harry Markowitz People have a hard time understanding risk. We only seem to worry about something after it happens instead of preparing for inevitable problems ahead of time. This comes from last week’s Wall Street Journal after the earthquake in…

How Framing Affects Investment Decisions & Outcomes

“We display risk-aversion when we are offered a choice in one setting and then turn into risk-seekers when we are offered the same choice in a different setting. We tend to ignore the common components of a problem and concentrate on each part in isolation.” – Peter Bernstein Let’s say you were given fifty-fifty odds…

In Pursuit of Past Performance

Morningstar had an interesting piece out this week about the alternative mutual fund universe. While Morningstar studies have shown that the most dependable predictor of future fund performance is low expenses, investors in this universe of funds aren’t following that advice: From 2011 to 2013, only 36% of the net $58 billion that has flowed…

The Unintended Consequences of Risk Avoidance

“Risk control is the best route to loss avoidance. Risk avoidance, on the other hand, is likely to lead to return avoidance as well.” – Howard Marks The investment fee wars continue to heat up as scale becomes more important than the actual size of the expenses. Here’s the latest from Investment News: TD Ameritrade…

What Stage of the Bull Market Are We In?

“A bull market is like sex. It feels best just before it ends.” – Barton Biggs Here’s how legendary investor John Templeton once described bull markets: Bull markets are born on pessimism, grow on skepticism, mature on optimism, and die on euphoria. And this is how Howard Marks defines the three stages of a bull…

Learning How to Make Progress From Chris Pratt

“A personal finance crisis is almost inevitable unless you address the truly important tasks in your life before they become urgent.” – Carl Richards Here’s another one to add to the ever-growing list of scary household saving stats courtesy of Businessweek: Just 45 percent of upper-middle-class households (income from $75,000 to $99,999) saved anything in…