“An asset allocation is like a wet bar of soap – the more frequently you touch it, the more rapidly it disappears.” – William Bernstein The terms bubble and crash get thrown around far too liberally these days, which makes sense since investors can easily see two large boom-and-bust cycles in the rearview mirror. Many…

One of my guiding principles is that less is more and simple beats complex. I was asked recently why this is the case. I wrote a whole book on this topic that even says “Why Simplicity Trumps Complexity in Any Investment Plan” in the title. While I can’t prove this as 100% fact, here are…

The prospect for lower future returns has many institutional investors scrambling for a savior. During the previous cycle, it was hedge funds. That shift in allocations hasn’t worked out so well. So the latest push has seen money pour into private equity in hopes of juicing returns through the use of leverage in the private…

A reader asks: My question to you is what are some of your financial goals? Do you hope to retire early or try to become financially independent someday to quit your job and do something else? I’d love to hear you address the ERE movement. It’s hard to see a week go by these days…

Capital allocation is one of the most important decisions management has to make for corporations. Changes in regulations have made it more important over the years for investors to pay attention to not only dividend yields, but also share buybacks, debt repayment and M&A. This piece I wrote for Bloomberg goes over how things have…

This past Tuesday the NASDAQ Composite fell 1.6%. Then on Thursday, it fell another 1.4%. A few weeks ago it dropped 1.8% on a single day. Since stocks bottomed in March of 2009, the NASDAQ has fallen by 1% or more on nearly 280 occasions, or more than 13% of all trading days. Since its inception…

“Stories are what stick with us. Statistics do not.” – Michael Mauboussin Going into our EBI West Conference I wrote about how excited I was to hear Michael Mauboussin speak. He didn’t disappoint. Mauboussin walked the crowd through a series of stories, examples and behavioral studies to understand how to make better decisions or avoid…

Investors love a good story which is why rules of thumb and simple cause and effect relationships tend to get a lot of traction whether they’re backed by actual evidence or not. In terms of policy, many seem to believe that a reduction in tax rates will be a huge boom to the stock market….

Philip Tetlock has spent his career studying experts and prediction. One of his studies involved nearly 300 economists, political scientists, intelligence analysts and journalists. They tallied almost 30,000 predictions in their respective fields. The average expert wasn’t much better than a random guess. And the more confident they were in their predictions the worse they…

Fargo is in the conversation for the best show on TV right now. I just finished up with the third season which, like the first two seasons, had a great combination of suspense, dark humor, crime, solid characters and a heavy dose of Minnesota accents. In one of the best scenes in the season finale…