Robert Shiller has a free online database of historical stock market data I’ve been using for years. Going back to 1871, Shiller has data on historical interest rates, dividends, earnings, inflation and valuations. His preferred valuation measure is the cyclically-adjusted price to earnings (CAPE) ratio The average CAPE ratio going back to 1871 is 17.4x…
Market History
Even When the Stock Market Goes Up it Still Goes Down
Preparing yourself for different moves in the stock market.
One Year Returns Don’t Matter
The only returns that matter for investors.
U.S. Stock Market Gains & Losses By the Numbers
What’s more likely from here — losses by year-end or 20% gains in the stock market?
Can We Have a New Bull Market With 3% Unemployment?
The relationship between stock market returns and the unemployment rate.
The Stock Market Usually Goes Up (But Sometimes it Goes Down)
How often does the stock market crash?
How Interest Rates & Inflation Impact Stock Market Valuations
A historical look at valuations by interest rate and inflation levels.
What Happens After a Bad Year in the Stock Market?
What happens after a double-digit down year for the stock market?
Backtests are Unemotional. Humans are Not
On the importance of financial market history.
Will High Risk-Free Rates Derail the Stock Market?
High short-term rates vs. the stock market.
