One of the biggest misconceptions about the Fed’s monetary policy is that low interest rates immediately cause investors to speculate or take on more debt. It would be silly to argue there hasn’t been any yield-chasing or excess risk-taking in recent years but there is a big difference between interest rate levels and credit (or…
Market History
Why History Gets Stuff Wrong All the Time
Why history is not always what you think.
Lessons From the 10 Best Years in Stock Market History
What the 10 best years in U.S. stock market history can teach us about investing.
Will Trend-Following Continue to Disappoint?
A historical look at trend-following during bull markets.
Re-Kindled: Where Are the Customers’ Yachts?
On this edition of Re-Kindled, Michael and Ben dive into the classic book Where Are the Customers’ Yachts? to see how well Fred Schwed’s book has held up.
Just the Facts About Market Corrections
The S&P 500 has experienced a correction of at least 5% or worse in 65 out of the past 70 years. Corrections are the price of adsmission in stocks.
Business Booms & Depressions: 1775-1943
From the Federal Reserve, this is a history of inflation, deflation, asset prices, national income, booms, busts, recessions and depressions from 1775-1943.
A Bad Year in the Bond Market is a Bad Day in the Stock Market
A podcast listener asks: I was hoping you could try and explain the bond bubble risk. A third of my portfolio is in a Vanguard bond fund. If there is a bubble, what could I stand to lose in % terms? Here’s a short video Michael and I did on this one: The idea that…
Recessions vs. Bear Markets
It may not feel like it after living through the Great Recession but the U.S. economy has become far more stable over time. Just look at the inflation rate over the past 100 plus years: And the contraction in GDP in each of the past 15 recessions: The Great Recession was an epic financial crisis…
Dividends Don’t Matter As Much As They Used To
In his excellent market history book, It Was a Very Good Year, Martin Fridson tells the story of the year that was in the market in 1915. It remains one of the strongest years on record for the stock market, which was up more than 50%, even though World War I was well underway at the time….
