I have more questions than answers about all the negative-yielding government debt in the world.
Macro/Econ
The Upside of a Recession
Looking at the glass as half full for the next recession.
Why Do We Need Inflation?
A reader asks: Why do we need inflation? This is a good question because wouldn’t we all be better off if prices were to fall? It’s not always that easy.
What If Interest Rates Don’t Rise Again For a Long Time?
Josh Brown and Ben Carlson discuss a what-if about the potential ramifications if the cost of capital remains low for an extended period of time.
What Inning Are We In?
A podcast listener asks: What inning are we in? This question was asked tongue-in-cheek but it’s still worthy of a serious answer because so much time and energy are devoted to figuring out where we stand in the market or economic cycle. Here’s what I had to say about this one on Instagram: I ran…
Recessions vs. Bear Markets
It may not feel like it after living through the Great Recession but the U.S. economy has become far more stable over time. Just look at the inflation rate over the past 100 plus years: And the contraction in GDP in each of the past 15 recessions: The Great Recession was an epic financial crisis…
Economic Growth Heading Into a Recession
A reader asks: I’ve heard ad nauseam that we are in the late innings of the expansion, but also that since we are at near 3% GDP, it is unlikely for us to quickly go into negative GDP growth and a recession. Would a certain level of GDP make it unlikely that a recession is…
The Alternative Was Worse
David McWilliams from the Financial Times had quite the headline on Friday: Quantitative easing was the father of millennial socialism He cites a number of studies that show a majority of young people prefer bigger government and he places the blame squarely on the Federal Reserve: Ten years ago, faced with the real prospect of…
Auto Loans Are Not the Next Subprime
The latest macro worry from the past week deals with auto loans. According to the Federal Reserve Bank of New York there are more than 7 million Americans who are 90 or more behind on their car loan payments. That’s a million more people than at the end of 2010. This has led a number of…
Insert Your Economic Story Here
The Great Depression is endlessly fascinating to me because I can’t imagine something like that happening in modern times in the U.S. The Great Recession was the worst financial crisis we’ve seen since the 1930s but it was child’s play compared to that period. The Great Recession saw GDP decline 5.1% with the unemployment rate…
