It seems like every week I see another survey about how ill-prepared the baby boomer generation is for retirement. Here’s the latest from Alessandra Malito of MarketWatch: Baby boomers, or those born between 1946 and 1964, expect they’ll need $658,000 in their defined contribution plans by the time they retire, but the average in those…
Why It’s Becoming Impossible to Gauge Investor Sentiment
I remember reading an article at the start of 2013 that concluded, “This market reeks of euphoria.” The S&P 500 is up around 90% since then. The problem with the firehose of information these days is that it’s easier than ever to latch onto a narrative that fits your current world view. In the financial…
When Risk is Not Rewarded
I remember reading The Accidental Billionaires just after it came out in 2009 or so and being blown away by the back story of how Facebook was founded (This is the book the movie Social Network was based on). After reading about the drama surrounding the founding of the company in a Harvard dorm room I would…
The Best Books on Financial Market History
Earlier this week I wrote (again) about the importance of understanding financial market history. This prompted a few people to ask for some of my favorite books on the topic. Here goes: Devil Take the Hindmost: A History of Financial Speculation If I had to pick just one book to read on the topic, this would…
Bitcoin, Stocks & The Fear of Missing Out
I don’t have any groundbreaking insights on the cryptocurrency phenomenon. Some people think it’s going to revolutionize payments and transactions while others assume it’s the no different than the Dutch Tulip Bubble. I’ve done a fair amount of reading on the topic and have concluded that it falls into my too hard pile. But it…
A Market History Lesson From Peter Bernstein
Earlier this week I wrote about the attributes successful investors share but I forgot one — a deep understanding of financial market history. This history proves to be more of a guide to human psychology than a road map for beating the market. No two market environments are ever exactly the same but fear, greed,…
The Game Beyond the Game
“Man, money aint’t got no owners, only spenders.” – Omar Little Successful investors have some combination of the following: Analytical firepower Math skills The correct temperament A deep understanding of human psychology The right amount of self-doubt A high level of emotional intelligence The ability to think in terms of probabilities The discipline to follow…
The Biggest Stocks
In a recent piece, I discussed why it’s not that out of the ordinary for a handful of stocks to account for a large portion of the stock market’s gains. This is just the nature of the beast with the stock market. There are very few big winners and lots of big losers over the long haul….
A Few Big Stocks Don’t Tell the Whole Market Story
Every year it seems investors worry that far too few stocks are carrying the market higher. The problem is most people never take the next step to see how often this actually happens. This is a piece I wrote for Bloomberg myth-busting the idea that a few stocks up big are a problem for the stock…
What’s Your Track Record?
The mid-to-late 1990s in Major League Baseball saw a huge uptick in home runs as steroid use became rampant. Records were being shattered every year as everyone ignored how huge these guys were all getting during a time when there was basically no drug testing. The steroids era in baseball coincided with something of a…