A podcast listener asks: What inning are we in? This question was asked tongue-in-cheek but it’s still worthy of a serious answer because so much time and energy are devoted to figuring out where we stand in the market or economic cycle. Here’s what I had to say about this one on Instagram: I ran…
Macro/Econ
Recessions vs. Bear Markets
It may not feel like it after living through the Great Recession but the U.S. economy has become far more stable over time. Just look at the inflation rate over the past 100 plus years: And the contraction in GDP in each of the past 15 recessions: The Great Recession was an epic financial crisis…
Economic Growth Heading Into a Recession
A reader asks: I’ve heard ad nauseam that we are in the late innings of the expansion, but also that since we are at near 3% GDP, it is unlikely for us to quickly go into negative GDP growth and a recession. Would a certain level of GDP make it unlikely that a recession is…
The Alternative Was Worse
David McWilliams from the Financial Times had quite the headline on Friday: Quantitative easing was the father of millennial socialism He cites a number of studies that show a majority of young people prefer bigger government and he places the blame squarely on the Federal Reserve: Ten years ago, faced with the real prospect of…
Auto Loans Are Not the Next Subprime
The latest macro worry from the past week deals with auto loans. According to the Federal Reserve Bank of New York there are more than 7 million Americans who are 90 or more behind on their car loan payments. That’s a million more people than at the end of 2010. This has led a number of…
Insert Your Economic Story Here
The Great Depression is endlessly fascinating to me because I can’t imagine something like that happening in modern times in the U.S. The Great Recession was the worst financial crisis we’ve seen since the 1930s but it was child’s play compared to that period. The Great Recession saw GDP decline 5.1% with the unemployment rate…
Can The Unemployment Rate Signal a Recession?
We’re closing in on the 10th year of this economic expansion. A few more months and this will officially be the longest economic expansion in modern U.S. history. The U.S. economy has now experienced 99 straight months with positive gains in the job market. We’re fast approaching 20 million jobs added since the start of this…
A History of Fed Rate Hikes
Yesterday the Fed hiked short-term interest rates for the ninth time since 2015. The stock market did not seem to care for this fact, as the S&P 500 fell more than 1.5% while the Nasdaq was off over 2.1%. Considering stocks are already in the midst of a double-digit drawdown, this result didn’t exactly provoke feelings…
