People have been calling this a “low return envionrment” for a number of years now which defies all logic considering how great returns have been in the markets. But eventually those who have been predicting lower returns will be right. Lower than average returns are nothing new because markets are always and forever cyclical. This…

Traders and investors alike often invoke the following chart to remind themselves that losses can be painful because of the fact that they require much larger percentage gains to make them back: I get why people pay attention to these kinds of charts. Risk management is important for a number of reasons, such as the…

Interest rates on almost everything have fallen since the onset of the financial crisis — long-term bonds, short-term bonds, fed funds, mortgages, car loans — pretty much anything with an interest rate attached to it. Well, everything except credit cards. The average credit card APR rose to it’s highest average ever in 2017 at around 16%….

On this week’s Animal Spirits with Michael & Ben we discuss: How the new tax reform impacts your paycheck with a helpful summary from tax expert Bill Sweet. The biggest winners from the new tax bill. Why happiness declines for most people until their 50s and then improves. Why investors in 401ks are better behaved than…

A large number of people have rightly been pointing to higher valuations to temper investor expectations about future returns. The problem is many of these same people have taken things a step further and used valuations to predict market crashes or the path of returns. Valuations don’t work very well as a timing indicator, as…

It’s possible I’m becoming a huge sap over the past few years now that I have children. So during the holidays I find myself pondering things like the ideal balance between my family and everything else in my life while considering how happiness and time management fit into this equation. A few weeks ago I wrote…

Here are your 2017 Financial Market Award winners: Biggest (non-crypto) Winners: Pretty Much Everything Stocks were up around the globe as U.S., European, Japanese and emerging markets have all gained in excess of 20%. Bonds were up. Gold was up. REITs were up. Small caps, mid caps, individual countries, you name it. Morningstar’s Jeffrey Ptak…

On this week’s Animal Spirits with Michael & Ben we discuss: Michael’s old trading diary and why he shorted Amazon. The benefits of documenting your investment process & ideas. GMO’s latest dire predictions for the markets. The prospect for micro efficiency and macro inefficiency in the markets. Why the path of returns matters more than…

Since I wrote this piece for Bloomberg in late-October there has been an additional 14 new all-time highs in the S&P 500. I’m often asked why the market continues to trudge higher in the face of so much uncertainty in the world. The simplest explanation is this idea of momentum. Momentum is by far the…

It’s intelligent behavior to see the other side of an argument in the markets because no one is right all the time and it’s easy to become blinded by our own beliefs. With this idea in mind, allow me to share some recent charts and statistics I’ve come across in recent weeks along with an…