During the next bear market… …someone will become a hero. A pundit, portfolio manager or resident doomsayer will “call” the crash and nail the timing. It will be mostly luck but will likely lead to a number of TV appearances, speaking gigs, and maybe a book deal or two. …your favorite pundit won’t be able to save…

It’s now been a year since the presidential election. While many were predicting the end of the world, U.S. stocks are up 24%, foreign developed stocks are up 23%, and emerging market stocks are up 23%. Allowing political beliefs to guide your investment ideas is not a useful strategy but people also get caught up…

There was a story in CNN Money last week about a 60-something part-time writer/librarian who cashed out all of the money she had in the stock market. Here’s what she did with it along with her reasoning behind the decision: Now all my money is stashed in U.S. Treasuries, Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (or TIPS bonds),…

A few years ago I wrote a post that is still far and away my most popular called What if You Only Invested at Market Peaks? I still regularly receive comments, caveats, and questions about this one. A recent follow-up question from a reader asks: What if you only put your money to work at below…

Investment conferences are usually a great way to network and meet people but often end up being fairly boring with little entertainment value in terms of subject matter. A lot of this stems from the fact that it’s difficult for most people to make this stuff exciting but a large portion of the finance industry…

Investors often evoke the old saying that history doesn’t repeat but it does rhyme. The problem is even when market scenarios do rhyme the differences far outweigh the similarities because every time is so different in the markets. Bridgewater Capital’s Ray Dalio has evoked the 1937 analogy for a few years now to describe the…

Over the past few weeks there have been rumors floating around about potential changes to the 401k retirement contribution limits via the current debate around tax reform. The first rumor was they were going to cap it at $2,400/year, which is ridiculous. Then last week it came out they’re considering increasing it to $20,000 (the current rules…

Some questions I’m pondering at the moment… 1. Which group is in the most trouble if we finally have the lower financial market returns everyone’s been predicting over the coming decade? Pension expected returns are probably way too high. These funds will have their reckoning at some point but I would be more worried about retirees who…

Next Thursday is our EBI Conference in New York City. The line-up for the conference is stacked — Liz Ann Sonders, Cliff Asness, Jason Zweig, Tim Buckley, Jim Ross, and a whole bunch of other well-known names from the asset management, financial media, and blogging worlds. There’s also NYU professor Scott Galloway who is one of…

Volatility is a tricky concept in the markets. Investors are constantly looking at how much markets are fluctuating to gauge where investor sentiment stands as a gauge for complacency, fear, or greed. In terms of predicting the end of a bull market, volatility gives us mixed signals. In this piece I wrote for Bloomberg I…