I have no idea what’s going to happen — in world events, politics, or the market — in 2019 (and neither does anyone else). This baked in uncertainty is what makes the financial markets equal parts maddening and fun to prepare for. There’s no way to reduce the inherent uncertainty about the future or know…
Search Results for: "10 year return"
8 Questions As We Head Into Year End
Some random questions I’m pondering as 2018 comes to a close… 1. Is it becoming a contrarian position to be optimistic about the future? I’m getting a little sick of the “2016 2017 2018 is the worst year ever.” Our society is far from perfect and things could always be better but if you honestly think humanity has reached…
Expected Returns & The 7 Year Itch
GMO’s latest 7-year asset class return forecast leaves much to be desired: These forecasts are made on a real basis so they take inflation into account here but however you slice it, this is not a great look for expected returns. Obviously, expectations and reality don’t always sync up at an agreed upon equilibrium. GMO…
Regression to Lumpy Returns
From 1928-2017, the S&P 500 showed an annualized average return of roughly 9.6% per year. From 2009-2017, the S&P 500 showed an annualized average return of roughly 15.1% per year. One of these data points is unsustainable (okay maybe both). The S&P 500 would have to go nowhere for the next 5 years to bring…
This Year’s Stock Market Losses Are Normal
The recent market correction was unusual in how swift it occurred but the magnitude of the losses shouldn’t be unexpected for investors. Losses are part of the game when investing in the stock market. This piece I wrote for Bloomberg in the midst of the sell-off provides some perspective on this year’s losses in stocks….
10 Money Revelations in My 30s
A note from your editor (me): I’m on vacation so no new podcast episode this week. We’ll be back on our regular schedule next week. I’ll maybe even provide some financial tips from my trip to Disney World. In lieu of the podcast, please enjoy this piece I wrote about some money realizations I’ve had…
180 Years of Stock Market Drawdowns
“We tend to be inadequate historians.” – Robert Frey A couple weeks ago I covered a little discussed topic involving the use of historical market data. Namely that you have to take market returns that go back to the turn of the 20th century with a grain of salt because of the fact that costs were much…
Even With Low Returns, Bonds Still Have Their Use
It’s easy to forget about bonds when the stock market is doing so well. It’s even easier to forget about bonds with all of the talk about the “end of the bond bull market” which is the latest topic du jour in financial circles. Here are a few reminders for investors looking to abandon bonds…
10 Things Investors Can Expect in 2018
I have no idea what’s going to happen — in world events, politics, or the market — in 2018 (and neither does anyone else). This baked in uncertainty is what makes the financial markets equal parts maddening and fun to prepare for. There’s no way to reduce the uncertainty about the future or know exactly…
Low Returns Are a Feature of the Markets, Not a Bug
People have been calling this a “low return envionrment” for a number of years now which defies all logic considering how great returns have been in the markets. But eventually those who have been predicting lower returns will be right. Lower than average returns are nothing new because markets are always and forever cyclical. This…
