“The average long-term experience in investing is never surprising, but the short- term experience is always surprising.” – Charley Ellis The stock market has basically gone nowhere for a while now. According to the sharp team over at Bespoke Investment Group, the S&P 500 has crossed the 2100 level to the upside 25 times over…
Benjamin Graham on Financial Advisors
The first investment book I ever read was Benjamin Graham’s The Intelligent Investor. This is one of a handful of books you hear mentioned over and over again when you ask investors to name the best investing books of all-time. The edition I read was annotated by Jason Zweig, which was very helpful because he was able…
Bond Yields: The Anti-Risk Bubble?
Robert Shiller has the following definition for a bubble: I define a speculative bubble as a situation in which news of price increases spurs investor enthusiasm, which spreads by psychological contagion from person to person, in the process amplifying stories that might justify the price increases and bringing in a larger and larger class of…
Double Secret Probation
Of the many classic one-liners from the movie Animal House, one of the my favorites is when the dean decides to put the Delta house on double secret probation: I’m always reminded of this clip when I hear about a common practice in the institutional asset management world. Whenever the boards of the various pensions,…
The Downside of Past Performance
“90% of what passes for brilliance or incompetence in investing is the ebb and flow of investment style.” – Jeremy Grantham The typical fund pitch book has some combination of the following: Our team has X year of combined experience. Our track record set against the S&P 500 is as follows… I understand the need…
3 Ways to Make Money in the Markets
Bob Maynard is one of the best investors you’ve probably never heard of. He runs the $14 billion pension fund for the state of Idaho and his long-term returns are consistently in the top quartile of the institutional fund world. The thing that sets Maynard apart from his institutional peers is the fact that he runs…
You Have to Invest
Investors are constantly bombarded with negatives these days. Everywhere you look there’s someone telling you why you can’t invest in certain asset classes or strategies: You can’t invest in the U.S. because the bull market is getting long in the tooth. You can’t invest internationally because those countries are a mess and what about the…
If Demographics Are Destiny…
Bill McBride at Calculated Risk put out a fascinating table on his blog recently that shows the coming changes in the demographics in the United States: These numbers are amazing. In 2020, the most common ages will all be between 25 to 35 years old. I get questions all the time from investors asking me…
Taking Stock of European Equities
The Brexit vote has dominated the financial and political news cycle for the past few days (and rightly so). People are angry, confused and there are plenty of opinions out there on the potential implications on globalization, immigration, free trade, the working class, elites and a whole host of other topics that people are using…
Get Ready For The Bull Market in Opinions
“Don’t be surprised that you’re surprised by the markets.” – Unknown The UK has surprised nearly everyone by voting to leave the European Union. While the result of vote is now known, the economic and market implications are far from set in stone. Although, if today is any indication, the markets are not thrilled about…