The original permanent portfolio was created by Harry Browne and consists of the following allocation: 25% in U.S. stocks 25% in long-term bonds 25% in gold 25% in cash The idea behind this portfolio is that it’s diversified enough to get you through a wide variety of economic and market environments and simple enough that even…
Some random observations as things have gotten interesting once again in the stock market… This is the exciting part. It’s more fun when stocks rise but part of me can’t help but be excited by a market correction. Maybe this is because I work in the industry but the psychology of market downturns fascinates me to no…
The stock market got interesting again this week. Volatility is back after having gone missing for the past 18 months or so. I saw the following words spewed across the financial media this week: turbulence, fear, pain, panic, distress, agony. It’s still a little early for all of that. As of the close on Thursday,…
There are no can’t-miss-works-every-time signals in the stock market or the economy. It’s never quite that easy. But inverted yield curves have been a fairly reliable indicator in the past in terms of danger ahead for stocks and the economy. I did a deep dive on what this could mean based on historical observations in…
On this week’s Animal Spirits with Michael and Ben we discuss: Why the crazy volatility in stocks shouldn’t be that surprising. The hidden risks in alternative investments. Why private equity is riskier now than it was in the past. Does it make sense for financial advisors to play the money managers selection game? Is picking…
Stocks have gotten hammered over the past 10 days or so, culminating in that 4% woosh down yesterday. These things happen but it’s never easy to deal with from a psychological perspective. Stocks were getting hammered again in overnight futures but as I type this they’re up down up down all over the place. When…
In the latest episode of our podcast, Michael and I discussed the relationship between corporate earnings and stock market performance. I’ve done some work on this in the past so I went through and updated my data on earnings growth versus stock market returns by decade: It may also be helpful to view these numbers…
Useful benchmarking is one of the hardest things to do for institutional investors because of the way they structure their portfolios. Take a look latest asset allocations for college endowment funds from the annual study done by the National Association of College University Business Officers (NACUBO): Alternative investments are now the biggest allocation for all…
Lynn Hill is a world-renowned rock climber. Widely regarded as one of the sport’s best climbers in the 80s and 90s, she won more than 30 international climbing titles. In the summer of 1989, she was about to climb what she termed a “relatively easy” route in France. At the base of a cliff she…
On this week’s Animal Spirits with Michael & Ben we discuss: My recent trip to Disney. Has the Fed been punishing savers through low interest rate policies? What’s a retiree to do when yields are so low? Is there a fair valuation for the stock market? Has it changed over time? Are investors holding too…
