It’s easy to forget about bonds when the stock market is doing so well. It’s even easier to forget about bonds with all of the talk about the “end of the bond bull market” which is the latest topic du jour in financial circles. Here are a few reminders for investors looking to abandon bonds…
Updating My Favorite Performance Chart For 2017
Each and every year since I started this website I’ve updated the following asset allocation quilt: For the second year in a row each asset class on this chart was positive. 2017 was a good year for investors. Looking at this list also serves as a reminder that next year the 2008 data will drop…
The Lifecycle of an Investment Idea
The Holy Grail of portfolio management is finding an asset or strategy that has high returns with low correlations to standard portfolio holdings like stocks and bonds. In the mid-2000s, many investors were led to believe they found such an asset in commodities. One of the main reasons for this belief was an academic paper…
Animal Spirits Episode 12: The Melt-Up
On this week’s Animal Spirits with Michael & Ben we discuss: The prospects for a melt-up in the stock market over the coming 9-18 months. The psychological damage another market crash would have on investors. Why not all historical stock market bubbles have ended in a crash. The problem with trying to come up with…
How the U.S. Stock Market is Unique
Home country bias is when investors have the tendency to invest mostly in their own domestic markets. A simple reason for this is familiarity (and in many countries a lack of opportunity to invest elsewhere). But many investors who have a home country bias don’t understand how the different regions of the world differ in…
10 Things Investors Can Expect in 2018
I have no idea what’s going to happen — in world events, politics, or the market — in 2018 (and neither does anyone else). This baked in uncertainty is what makes the financial markets equal parts maddening and fun to prepare for. There’s no way to reduce the uncertainty about the future or know exactly…
When Things Don’t Make Any Sense
I was recently asked to name my favorite book on the history of speculative bubbles in the markets. There are a number of good books on the topic, but by far my favorite is Devil Take the Hindmost: A History of Financial Speculation by Edward Chancellor (it also has one of the great investment book titles ever). I…
Animal Spirits Episode 11: Hedge Fund Myths & Casual Investing Advice
On this week’s Animal Spirits with Michael & Ben we discuss: What to do if you’ve been sitting in cash during the bull market. The latest change I made to my personal portfolio. What trend-following is and why it’s a difficult concept for investors to grasp. The worst bear market no one ever talks about….
The Best Books I Read in 2017
I talked about some of my favorite books in a recent podcast episode but wanted to put them down here just to keep with tradition since I have done so every year since I started this blog (plus there are a few I missed). These were my favorite books I read this year: Non-Fiction Deep…
Low Returns Are a Feature of the Markets, Not a Bug
People have been calling this a “low return envionrment” for a number of years now which defies all logic considering how great returns have been in the markets. But eventually those who have been predicting lower returns will be right. Lower than average returns are nothing new because markets are always and forever cyclical. This…