The good and bad of forecasting the future.
Macro/Econ
The Fed Matters Less Than You Think
These were some of the prevailing narratives from the post-GFC world: We only had a bull market in the 2010s because of the Fed juicing the economy. The only reason tech stocks did well is because of low interest rates. The only reason stocks kept recovering from every correction so quickly is because of the…
5 Questions I Have About the Economy
5 questions I’m pondering at the moment.
Inflation is the Lesser of Two Evils
Inflation is the lesser of two evils.
Seeing Both Sides of the U.S. Economy
Cognitive dissonance in the economic discourse.
Complacency in the U.S. Economy
Recessions don’t happen nearly as often as they used to. Maybe we’ve become complacent about econmic volatility.
Americans Have Never Been Wealthier & No One is Happy
The median real net worth of American households was up 37% from 2019-2022.
Stop Betting Against America
Good luck betting against America.
Why Are Interest Rates Spiking?
Some theories about the crazy move in bond yields.
How Prepared Are Consumers For a Recession?
An update on the state of the U.S. consumer.
