The stock market doesn’t need a recession for a large correction.
Bear Markets/Crash
The 5 Types of Market Crash Predictions
Understanding the motivations behind market crash predictions.
What Would You Have Done in 2009?
Advice for those who are still sitting in cash since the Great Recession.
Yes, the Stock Market is Going to Crash
How to deal with the inevitability of stock market crashes.
Why You’ll Never Invest in the Next Big Short
There were a handful of investors who made a boatload of money betting against the housing market in 2007 by shorting subprime mortgages through the use of credit default swaps and such. John Paulson is the most notable, earning a $20 billion profit for his fund along with an estimated $4 billion for himself in…
Things That Were Said During the Bear Market
We recorded an episode of Animal Spirits called The Bear Market on December 21, 2018 (it aired on December 26). The first 10 minutes or so of the podcast provides a look back into the psychology in the midst of a decent-sized downturn in the stock market.1 We talked about the damage that was inflicted…
What If You Retire at a Stock Market Peak?
Meet Sam. Sam’s entire family has terrible luck when it comes to the timing of their retirement. Sam’s great-grandparents retired at the end of 1928. Over the ensuing three years or so the stock market would drop close to 90% while the U.S. economy would contract nearly 30% in the Great Depression. In 1937, the…
Are Market Moves Happening Faster?
The S&P 500 hit an all-time high on September 20, 2018. A little more than two months later, after a shellacking on Christmas Eve, it had fallen 19.8%. The 95 days from peak to trough was the fastest bear market since the S&P fell 19.3% in just 45 days in 1998. Since bottoming (for the…
The Forgotten Bear Markets
After closing at an all-time high on September 20, the S&P 500 entered a bear market on Christmas Eve. The technical definition is a 20% peak-to-trough drawdown, but I’m willing to give this 19.8% fall the benefit of the doubt. There was a decent rally the rest of the week, but regardless if this was THE…
Big Up Days In The Stock Market
On this week’s Animal Spirits podcast Michael and I predicted some vicious countertrend rallies in the midst of the current bear market in stocks. Here’s the tape: There was some fortuitous timing with the release of the show and the market action that followed. We taped this one a little early because of the holidays…
