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On today’s show, we discuss:
- How Many Benign Inflation Prints Are Enough?
- America’s wage boost: There are fewer low-wage workers in the U.S. now
- Sometimes a cut is just a cut
- Outlook for public and private markets
- UBS Global Wealth Report
- Despite 7% Mortgage Rates, One in Seven Families Could Still Afford To Take On A New Mortgage
- The cost of everything that goes into building a new home
- The Private Equity Bubble Is About to Deflate
- Pensions Piled Into Private Equity. Now They Can’t Get Out.
- Labor, Income, Finances, and Expectations (LIFE) Survey
- Kevin Bacon filmography
- What A Century (Plus a Pandemic) Does to Moviegoing and Why It Matters
Listen here
Recommendations:
Charts:
Tweets:
US core inflation ex shelter – has now been negative two months in a row (M-o-M %) – see chart.
Last happened in the pandemic – otherwise not since Dec 2014/Jan 2015
V rare pic.twitter.com/cdZ4Qe7efK
— Longview Economics (@Lvieweconomics) July 11, 2024
Chicken wing prices, +190% on the 2yr stack, continue to climb after troughing in late 2022 pic.twitter.com/oaSaYUTGtK
— Mike Zaccardi, CFA, CMT 🍖 (@MikeZaccardi) July 16, 2024
so: $892 billion in risk-free interest income largely going into the pockets to US households, investors & institutions, pension funds, the Fed, the govt itself ("intragovermental debt"), state & local governments + some of our closest foreign allies
and now at higher yields wow https://t.co/hVTna56csI pic.twitter.com/nNTKqq08J4
— talmon joseph smith (@talmonsmith) July 8, 2024
The "credit card doom" narrative suffered a major blow this morning
Serious credit card delinquencies are down for all three major banks that reported today pic.twitter.com/8Wuyg7EO0p
— Jack Farley (@JackFarley96) July 12, 2024
A Cybertruck sold for *$262,500* at auction just a couple months ago…
Here’s how much they’re going for now:@GeorgeJSaliba pic.twitter.com/Y6bvsafCGp
— Car Dealership Guy (@GuyDealership) June 26, 2024
Bitcoin had 20% drawdown in a month flat. Pretty nasty. I would have been impressed if 90% of aum hung in there but it was over 100% as they saw inflows. The Boomers hung tough, even tougher than I predicted, and kept the all imp YTD net number at +$15b. Hanging tough during… pic.twitter.com/prG3ByynDT
— Eric Balchunas (@EricBalchunas) July 9, 2024
the Bitcoin ETFs are in "two steps forward" mode after one step back in June with another +$300m yesterday and $1b for week. YTD net total (the most imp number in all this) has crossed +$16b for first time. Our est for first 12mo was $12-15b so already cleared that w 6mo to go. pic.twitter.com/0V7wE9D5OU
— Eric Balchunas (@EricBalchunas) July 16, 2024
American mortgage holders carry only 48% loan-to-value on their homes, down from 70% a decade ago.
It's really hard to overstate how strong a financial position American homeowners have.
https://t.co/je4cQUtK5U pic.twitter.com/iZ3KvTs5dq
— Mike Simonsen 🐉 (@mikesimonsen) July 10, 2024
CIO Chart of the Week: As consumers gear up for Prime Day, we are reminded of the increasing efficiency and accessibility with which goods are delivered today. In the last 5 years, the average retailer has cut its “click-to-door” speed by nearly 3 days! Amazingly, Amazon has… pic.twitter.com/oiTElQk8RR
— Rick Rieder (@RickRieder) July 15, 2024
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