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On today’s show, we discuss:
- The 72-hour scramble to save the United States from a banking crisis
- Why failed Silicon Valley Bank was an outlier
- The bank panic should not exist
- Prescriptive View: Three layers of Fed failure
- What gets lost when you rescue markets
- US Bank deposits fell $54B in week before SVB collapse
- Wall Streets biggest banks rescue teetering First Republic
- Smaller banks’ critical role in economy means distress raises recession risks
- Cathie Wood’s ARKK lures biggest inflow since 2021 glory days
- A better AEI graphic of inflation over the past 20 years
- Update from Amazon CEO Andy Jassy on Amazon’s operating plan and additional role eliminations
- Job listings abound, but many are fake
- Golf at 3pm Thursday? Sure, it’s the afternoon fun economy
- Home prices fell in February for the first time in 11 years
- Savers pile money into bank CDs as rates top 5%
- In New York City a $100,000 salary feels like $36,000
- Good news: ChatGPT would probably fail a CFA exam
Future Proof:
YCharts x Animal Spirits Webinar on March 23rd at 2:30 Eastern
Listen Here:
Recommendations:
- Hunt For Red October
- Lock, Stock, & Two Smoking Barrels
- The Fugitive
- Sicario: Day of the Soldado
- Ferris Buellers Day Off
Charts:
Tweets:
“Since the Fed began to raise interest rates a year ago, the amount of money in money market funds has increased by roughly $400bn, and the inflows increased by more than $100bn last week” @apolloglobal pic.twitter.com/hyDlIX8Tpv
— Sam Ro 📈 (@SamRo) March 20, 2023
A record high $152.85B borrowed from the Fed’s discount window this week…
Prior all-time high was $111B in 2008.
(Chart @zerohedge) pic.twitter.com/sRBh96qxXL— Geiger Capital (@Geiger_Capital) March 16, 2023
The majority of America has no idea about the banking crisis happening on Twitter.
— Chris Powers (@fortworthchris) March 18, 2023
The media’s position on bank runs: Their reporting of huge unrealized losses at a bank in no way contributes to a run. If you react to their reporting by wanting to withdraw your money, you’re panicking. But if you stay in the bank and it fails, you deserve to lose your money.
— David Sacks (@DavidSacks) March 18, 2023
Not normal. pic.twitter.com/uCMCT7e6bS
— Bespoke (@bespokeinvest) March 17, 2023
Takeaway: fixing a "banking crisis" is a lot easier than fixing inflation.
— Jesse Livermore (@Jesse_Livermore) March 20, 2023
“Small banks account for 30% of all loans in the US economy, and regional and community banks are likely to now spend several quarters repairing their balance sheets.”
-Torsten Slok, Apollo, on the coming credit crunch— Edward Harrison (@edwardnh) March 15, 2023
JP MORGAN APPROXIMATELY ESTIMATES SLOWER LOAN GROWTH BY MID-SIZE BANKS COULD DEDUCT A HALF TO A FULL PERCENTAGE-POINT OFF THE LEVEL OF US GDP OVER THE NEXT YEAR OR TWO.
— FinancialJuice (@financialjuice) March 16, 2023
4/6 – Target-maturity bond ETFs are getting more popular by the day and have brought in more than $15 Bil in cumulative inflows over the past year. pic.twitter.com/kQqMBM6I39
— Ben Johnson, CFA (@MstarBenJohnson) March 16, 2023
Amazon announces another round of layoffs affecting 9,000 employees on top of the 18,000 announced in Jan. Small compared to their workforce of 1.5 million, but likely a more significant % of their corporate staff.https://t.co/WXqqphridq pic.twitter.com/WharcYMYCW
— Daniel Zhao (@DanielBZhao) March 20, 2023
.@KellyCNBC Delayed answer to your on-air question (didn’t trust my recollection on the spot):
80% of job openings are at small businesses with fewer than 250 employees right now, up from around 72% in 2019.
50% are in those with fewer than 50, up from 41% in 2019.
— Julia Pollak (@juliaonjobs) March 16, 2023
BTC spot volumes are sky-high: Under my favorite metric (trusted exchanges from @coinmetrics, 3-day ma), BTC spot volumes hit the highest print since May 2021.
Do you think these high volumes are here to stay? pic.twitter.com/MMNBlchWpg
— David Lawant (@dlawant) March 17, 2023
Per 2020 #IRS figures:
The top 1% of individual filers paid 42.31% of all US Income #Taxes up from 38.77% in 2019. They accounted for 22.19% of total Adjusted Gross Income AGI.
You needed an AGI of $548,336 to make it into this club. pic.twitter.com/8GkWeXCezZ— George Papadopoulos (@feeonlyplanner) March 21, 2023
🚨Breaking:
Microsoft just launched 365 Copilot, and it's insane.
It's essentially ChatGPT for:
-Word
-Excel
-Powerpoint
-Outlook
-TeamsCheck out the demo👇 pic.twitter.com/ATW0mfPwhC
— Rowan Cheung (@rowancheung) March 16, 2023
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