Some questions I’m pondering at the moment… 1. Which group is in the most trouble if we finally have the lower financial market returns everyone’s been predicting over the coming decade? Pension expected returns are probably way too high. These funds will have their reckoning at some point but I would be more worried about retirees who…

There are some residual scars remaining from the Great Financial Crisis but it feels like a distant memory in many respects. Most people seem to have moved on. That didn’t happen quite so quickly following the Great Depression. Those involved had memories of that crash that lingered for decades. People more or less stopped going…

In the 30 years ended 2016, the S&P 500 returned just over 10% per year. Compounding at that rate, fifty grand invested at the start of 1987 would have grown to nearly $875,000 by the end of last year. Not bad. Besides the usual caveats — taxes, fees, behavior, diversification, etc. — the problem with…

10 questions I’m pondering at the moment: 1. Are investors right to worry about bonds more than stocks? The Wealth of Common Sense anecdotal sentiment reading shows that most investors are more concerned with bonds these days than stocks. Risk is in the eye of the beholder but I wonder if this worry will be a…

A few months ago I was asked to write for Bloomberg to help provide context and perspective around the financial markets. I’m really excited about the opportunity. I’ve been writing there roughly once a week since mid-January. I have to wait a few weeks after my pieces run on Bloomberg to re-publish here so occasionally…

We’re currently living in the golden age of the backtest. Things have never been better for quantitatively-inclined investors. There are algorithms on top of algorithms. We’ve never had so much historical market or corporate data available at the click of a button. Computing power is off the charts. Entry-level analysts can now perform calculations with…

I’ve spent the past few weeks skimming all sorts of 2017 market outlooks. Lots of people are looking for answers, but most investors aren’t even bothering to ask the right questions. I don’t know what’s going to happen so here are 10 questions I’m pondering going into the new year: 1. Is President Trump going…

The equity risk premium is the academic definition of the idea that stocks should outperform the risk free rate over the long-term. The risk free rate to be used is up for debate, but using the 10 year treasury bond as a proxy gives us a historical equity risk premium of about 4.5% per year…

I caught Vanguard’s John Bogle on a recent Bloomberg interview discussing his simple formula for estimating future stock market returns: I have a reasonable expectations kind of formula that I’ve been using for 25 years and it’s worked the whole 25 years almost perfectly. There’s some decades where it doesn’t work as well as it…

A few things I’ve come to realize about money as I recently hit the mid-point of my 30s… 1. A successful financial life comes from increasing your career prospects and saving the difference, but that doesn’t happen with lifestyle creep. Most personal finance experts talk about how much you can save from cutting back, but very…