What If Stocks Don’t Crash…

…for a while? It’s not without precedent that the stock market can go long stretches in the absence of an enormous market crash. Benjamin Roth was a young lawyer in Ohio during the Great Depression. He kept a diary throughout this trying period which was eventually turned into a book called The Great Depression: A…

Market Timing is Hard

After reading one of my pieces someone recently commented that my whole schtick is simply pointing out how hard it is to invest successfully. This was meant to be a put-down but in some ways it’s true. I write a lot about how hard investing can be because it is hard. Anyone who tells you it’s…

Darwin’s Golden Rule

One of the oddities of the information age is that it hasn’t really led to an enlightenment of knowledge. In many ways, the firehose of information has made some people less informed. There are people who believe the earth is flat, the moon landing was a hoax, and Australia doesn’t exist. But beyond the conspiracy…

Animal Spirits Episode 48: Looming Disaster

On this week’s Animal Spirits with Michael and Ben we discuss: Why losses in the bond market can sting. Do stocks diversify bonds? Jeremy Siegel says stocks are undervalued relative to bonds. Can bonds really be overvalued? Do rising interest rates really hurt stocks? Will we buy the new Amazon Alexa microwave? Pot stocks and mini…

Undervalued Financial Advice

There’s a lot of overvalued financial advice out there these days. Don’t drink lattes or you’ll never be able to save for retirement. You should make your own toothpaste to save more money. Just follow my simple system to get the highest interest rate on your savings account. There’s nothing wrong with cutting back, being…

The New Gilded Age?

In Gary Shteyngart’s new novel Lake Success, the protagonist is a wealthy hedge fund manager named Barry who has a complete lack of self-awareness. Shteyngart’s storytelling in this book is wonderful but when you read it the theme of wealth inequality slaps you in the face throughout. At one point in the story, Barry and his…

The Psychology of Playing the Lottery

On this week’s podcast we discussed some stats from a recent Bloomberg piece about the lottery: The lowest-income households in the U.S. on average spend $412 annually on lottery tickets, which is nearly four times the $105 a year spent by the highest-earning households, according to a study released on Wednesday by Bankrate.com. And almost 3 in 10 Americans…

Knowledge vs. Skill

“Only the disciplined ones in life are free. If you are undisciplined, you are a slave to your moods and your passions.” – Eliud Kipchoge This week Eliud Kipchoge of Kenya shattered the world record in the marathon by one minute and 18 seconds with a time of 2:01:39. This equates to an unfathomable average…

Animal Spirits Episode 47: Borrowing From the Future

On this week’s Animal Spirits with Michael and Ben we discuss: Ray Dalio’s thoughts on debt cycles. Taking financial advice from billionaires. The world’s $250 trillion in debt. How much debt is too much for the world’s governments? Why no one really knows how many assets are indexed. How lotteries can help people save more money. JP…

The Best Performing Stocks

My least favorite market stats lead off with the following: If you would have just invested $10,000… This is always followed by Amazon, Berkshire Hathaway, Bitcoin or some other asset that has seen enormous gains since its infancy. And if you had only invested $10,000 you would be a millionaire many times over. So why…