How to think about future returns in the stock market.
Current Markets
The Difference Between Stocks & Bonds
Are bonds cometition for stocks with yields so much higher?
Higher For Longer vs. the Stock Market
How the stock market has fared in the past from various interest rate and inflation levels.
Three Things Investment People Hate to Admit
There are three things people in the finance world hate to admit: I don’t know. I was wrong. I didn’t expect that to happen. A master-of-the-universe mentality is pervasive in finance because it’s a group of highly educated, competitive people. They see it as a sign of weakness if you admit you don’t know what’s…
6 Questions I’m Pondering At the Moment
Some questions about the labor market, streaming services, the housing market, interest rates, the Detroit Lions and more.
Why Aren’t Investors Selling Stocks to Buy Bonds?
How expensive are stocks relative to bonds?
Do Valuations Even Matter For the Stock Market?
Robert Shiller has a free online database of historical stock market data I’ve been using for years. Going back to 1871, Shiller has data on historical interest rates, dividends, earnings, inflation and valuations. His preferred valuation measure is the cyclically-adjusted price to earnings (CAPE) ratio The average CAPE ratio going back to 1871 is 17.4x…
Rolling the Dice on the Stock Market
The problem with 6% T-bill yields in lieu of investing in the stock market.
One Year Returns Don’t Matter
The only returns that matter for investors.
Good News-Bad News About the Economy
Some thoughts about the current state of the markets and economy.
