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On today’s show we discuss:
- Novembers CPI print
- Carvana could run out of cash within months: analyst
- The Federal Reserve is deflating financial bubbles, without a crash
- Slowing growth edges out inflation as top concern
- Vanguard economic outlook for 2023: beating back inflation
- SBF secretly funded crypto news site
- Semafor Business on SBF
- The Alameda VC portfolio
- Calculated Risk on recession watch
- LULU earnings
- Why aren’t Americans ditching big banks?
Listen here:
Recommendations:
Charts:
Tweets:
Inflation is still too high (7.1%), but there are lots of encouraging signs it's trending down…
Monthly growth slowed to just 0.1%
Gas -2% in November
Utilities -1.1%
Used cars -2.9%
Airfare -3%
Food 0.5% –> slowest in months
**Services inflation without shelter was flat** pic.twitter.com/dmfYYU6QYY— Heather Long (@byHeatherLong) December 13, 2022
Core CPI over the last three months, annualized: +4.2%.
That number peaked at +7.9% in the April to June quarter.
— Neil Irwin (@Neil_Irwin) December 13, 2022
This is the chart you need to watch from here on out.
Goods inflation is slowing.
Services inflation isn't.
The Fed has more control over services inflation. pic.twitter.com/qnbH9PLXQr
— Callie Cox (@callieabost) December 13, 2022
peak is in pic.twitter.com/xmjBUDgKq5
— Dario Perkins (@darioperkins) December 13, 2022
The Atlanta Fed's Wage Growth Tracker, updated today, shows pay growth for job switchers moved up last month
Hourly wage growth rose 6.4% from a year earlier (unchanged from October) for all workers, but ticked up for job switchers—8.1% from 7.6% https://t.co/PDcoMi2iaI pic.twitter.com/stuTaCXWZc
— Nick Timiraos (@NickTimiraos) December 8, 2022
#Deflation in used cars.
(via @Manheim_US)#CPI $F $GM $TSLA https://t.co/H1oiH9IGkI pic.twitter.com/8yvh7yyFxw
— Carl Quintanilla (@carlquintanilla) December 7, 2022
"Pessimism reigned, inflation raged, Fed tightened + investors revalued downward. But resultant bear market was a mild one as bears go. If it ended on Oct 12, the S&P 500 actually was in bear-market territory—down more than 20%—for only 45 days of the 282-day span."
— Barry Ritholtz (@Ritholtz) December 5, 2022
Buying risk assets at the point of the last rate hike has been profitable in environments with declining inflation.
Nice case for a tailwind after March or so. pic.twitter.com/JHdMypZExu
— Tom Dunleavy (@dunleavy89) December 9, 2022
https://twitter.com/psarofagis/status/1600962445702762496
Among US stock funds, there have been 11,517 funds that have had at least one five-year return since 1997. Those funds had 132,210 five-year measurements vs. their style-specific indexes over that span. They beat the index in 50,564 of those instances, lagged in the other 81,646.
— Jeffrey Ptak (@syouth1) December 10, 2022
Rare combination of profitability and low multiples in $XLE at the end of November (3rd most profitable and simultaneously the 4th cheapest) pic.twitter.com/8uUy8uSU6M
— Daniel Sotiroff (@DanielSotiroff) December 7, 2022
People never seem to commend oil companies when gas prices decline.
— John Arnold (@JohnArnoldFndtn) December 8, 2022
Exxon Mobil boosts stock buybacks and plans to double cash flow by 2027 https://t.co/GXUNbGxWHo
— MarketWatch (@MarketWatch) December 8, 2022
Yesterday's $RH earnings call with CEO & Chairman Gary Friedman was, mildly speaking, bearish. We have in this thread curated the 16 best quotes 🧵
1. The housing market is in a "free fall": pic.twitter.com/js43PO9BR4
— Quartr (@Quartr_App) December 9, 2022
"We haven't seen any weakness with our consumer," Lululemon CEO Calvin McDonald says of how the high-end activewear company is looking forward to the holidays. https://t.co/SRNoSvCSrh pic.twitter.com/418bAnmuv7
— CNBC (@CNBC) December 10, 2022
Just 8% of Americans have a positive view of cryptocurrencies now, CNBC survey finds https://t.co/sVcbgJp8Oi
— Steve Liesman (@steveliesman) December 7, 2022
By way of comparison, Bill Hwang was arrested 13 months after Archegos collapsed https://t.co/BW92tn4vNZ
— Tina Davis (@tina_davis) December 13, 2022
Housing starts fell off a cliff in November. Many home builders in our monthly survey hitting the pause button until costs drop.
— Rick Palacios Jr. (@RickPalaciosJr) December 7, 2022
John Burns: "In early December, 75% of nationally surveyed home builders confirmed they are buying down buyers’ mortgage rates to make payments more affordable."
— Bill McBride (@calculatedrisk) December 9, 2022
YoY change in "homes for sale" searches on Google Trends — @Redfin has cited this series, I've never looked at it myself, but looks like there might be something here: pic.twitter.com/fUaCCpKCXY
— Conor Sen (@conorsen) December 9, 2022
American teenagers were happiest in the mid-to-late 2000s. pic.twitter.com/Xw1c5OKBhF
— Noah Smith 🐇🇺🇸🇺🇦🇹🇼 (@Noahpinion) December 6, 2022
Yesterday's $RH earnings call with CEO & Chairman Gary Friedman was, mildly speaking, bearish. We have in this thread curated the 16 best quotes 🧵
1. The housing market is in a "free fall": pic.twitter.com/js43PO9BR4
— Quartr (@Quartr_App) December 9, 2022
Here's a chart that puts current credit card debt levels in proper context.
As a % of total salaries & wages, even at these higher nominal levels, credit card debt is lower than at any time in the last 20+ years (except for plunge during the pandemic). pic.twitter.com/gDUj3fGswV
— Bill (@wabuffo) December 7, 2022
"Households do not appear to be increasing their credit card utilization rates (the % of their limits they run up to) at a fast rate…" – BofA https://t.co/HfLAD1keUx pic.twitter.com/zxMFZBBxg9
— Sam Ro 📈 (@SamRo) December 8, 2022
Household liabilities as a % of GDP have been trending down for 15 years and are back at 2001 levels, but might finally be stabilizing… pic.twitter.com/uY3omDTrtB
— Conor Sen (@conorsen) December 9, 2022
Disneyland the happiest place on Earth pic.twitter.com/59p6SWk10I
— Evan (@StockMKTNewz) December 10, 2022
I got youhttps://t.co/qMWJnp6eVa
— Thaddeus Venture (@venture42069) December 12, 2022
NEW: The first trailer for the Adam Driver sci-fi film 65 drops tomorrow. Written and directed by the duo who wrote #AQuietPlace, Scott Beck and Bryan Woods. In theaters March 10.pic.twitter.com/JlzOdmHA0M
— Erik Davis (@ErikDavis) December 13, 2022
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