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On today’s show, we discuss:
- Mcdonalds earnings
- Yes, that Big Mac meal may cost $18 – but there’s one good reason for it
- Credit Bidenomics for rising US wages
- Maybe we’re thinking of the P/E ratio all wrong
- NVDA is now worth as much as the whole Chinese stock market
- David Einhorn on passive investing
- The rich list: The 22nd annual ranking of the highest-earning hedge fund managers
- America has never had so many 65-year-olds. They’re redefining the milestone
- Yellen says commercial property is a worry, but regulators are on it
- Apollo on the US Housing outlook
- Wealth inequality by age in the post-pandemic era
- Macro is hard
- Thoughts after 40 hours in the vision pro
Listen here:
Recommendations:
Charts:
Tweets:
Bears: Stocks are a bubble b/c all the returns are from multiple expansion (ME).
Truth: S&P 500 total return past 4 yrs was 58%. Did you know 51% was from earnings and divs, while only 7% was ME?
Yeah, they don't always tell you that part. @sonusvarghese keeps busting myths. pic.twitter.com/AKez1HaE9m
— Ryan Detrick, CMT (@RyanDetrick) February 8, 2024
Can it get more extreme? Anything is possible.
Internet Services went up 257% over three months in 1999. pic.twitter.com/R2ck25YNjn
— Dean Christians, CMT (@DeanChristians) February 9, 2024
Do index $$ impact valuations? Of course.
But I’d note the biggest bubbles of the last 5 years were:
SPACS
Direct listings
Private rounds
Crypto / NFTs
Collectibles
Self storage
Private creditOne thing all of them have in common?
They were never (or barely) in index funds.
— Jake (@EconomPic) February 10, 2024
One of the biggest mistakes by finance idiots* is to conflate tail risk awareness with bearishness.
Believing in Black Swans ≠ Permabears.
* Short for fucking idiots. pic.twitter.com/Jd3uWPgqJg
— Nassim Nicholas Taleb (@nntaleb) February 7, 2024
Lowest outflow day yet for $GBTC — $51.8 million https://t.co/YK5Wplyil8
— James Seyffart (@JSeyff) February 9, 2024
First time in four years, McLaughlin finds more Americans say America isn't in a recession than is in one pic.twitter.com/JaQuQE0Wvg
— Polling USA (@USA_Polling) February 7, 2024
After hearing @awealthofcs speak on the Vision Pro with @michaelbatnick I thought of the following. Ben is in the endgame now. pic.twitter.com/6R6N7AgLYD
— Webster (@Web_IV) February 8, 2024
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