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On today’s show, we discuss:
- This season’s hottest pricing trend: Falling prices
- The purchasing power of American households
- This is a wonderful market for dollar cost averaging (AWOCS, Nov 2023)
- What to make of today’s twice-in-history S&P 500 valuations (AWOCS, 2017)
- It’s the magnificent seven’s market. The other stocks are just living in it
- More Americans than ever own stocks
- Beware the most crowded trade on Wall Street: Next year’s soft landing
- Goldman strategists lift S&P 500 forecast a month after setting it
- TKer’s 2023 chart of the year
- America’s housing shortage explained in one chart
- Allison Schrager on a soft landing
- Single-family starts increase sharply in November, near record number of multi-family housing units under construction
- What we watched: A Netflix engagement report
- Barbie, Elf and the $500m right to entertain you on a plane
Listen here:
Recommendations:
- Beckham
- Past Lives
- Mark Zuckerberg building $100M Hawaii compound with a massive underground bunker
- Mint Comedy
Charts:
Tweets:
BREAKING: According to GasBuddy data, the national average price of gasoline now stands at $3.04 per gallon, the lowest level since June 5, 2021. 30 states have average prices at $2.99 or less. Today’s median price is $2.89/gallon.
— Patrick De Haan ⛽️📊 (@GasBuddyGuy) December 16, 2023
Subtweeting a lot of people:
When talking whether how real wages have kept up with the pre-pandemic trend, it's worth noting that the last 10 years is a period of unusually fast real wage growth.
Median real wages were fairly flat from 1998 through 2013! pic.twitter.com/6Nl90v88p6
— Matt Darling 🌐🏗️ (@besttrousers) December 13, 2023
Here's a great stat for you:
The small-cap Russell 2,000 made a new 52-week high today after hitting a 52-week low just 48 days ago. That's the shortest turnaround time in the index's history to go from 52-week low to 52-week high dating back to the 1970s! $IWM #markets
— Bespoke (@bespokeinvest) December 14, 2023
Since CAPE first hit 30 in June 2017, $SPY has returned > 100%, despite suffering two bear markets along the way and probably one that was close at the end of 2018. Valuation-based timing is hard pic.twitter.com/mdLMxYQZWO
— Lawrence Hamtil (@lhamtil) December 14, 2023
Forecasts of 3% 10 year in 2024 are farcical.
If Fed funds rest at 3% then 10 year average term premium of 1.1 indicates at 4% that we are there.
— Bill Gross (@real_bill_gross) December 13, 2023
Don’t make the mistake of overemphasizing consensus estimates as particularly meaningful. Estimates are not an indication of what's actually priced into stocks. S&P earnings results relative to beginning of year consensus and corresponding index price return shown below. #SPX pic.twitter.com/nidprhbkhd
— Gina Martin Adams (@GinaMartinAdams) December 17, 2023
Retail traders are all-in again.
Dumb Money Confidence just jumped to the 3rd-highest reading in 25 years.
It was no problem at all in 2021. Other than that, very high Confidence typically precedes modest gains at best until sentiment resets. pic.twitter.com/MEL2DYgJ2W
— Jason Goepfert (@jasongoepfert) December 15, 2023
According to the polling firm CiViQs, consumer sentiment is on the mend. Net percent of respondents saying that direction of nation's economy is getting better hit its best level since September 2021. Current conditions also hit a fresh high. pic.twitter.com/F3RF88UNtN
— RenMac: Renaissance Macro Research (@RenMacLLC) December 18, 2023
"Cash only" means that the authorized participants (APs), the entities that directly interact with the Exchange Traded Funds (ETF), will only be able to obtain more shares (this is called share creations) of the ETF by bringing the appropriate amount of cash to the table. For… https://t.co/lBsEgCKmi4
— Vance Harwood (@6_Figure_Invest) December 19, 2023
There's still a ton of speculation out there that falling mortgage rates in 2024 might lead to a flood of sellers (and therefore a price crash).
The data is very clear. The opposite is true.
Lower rates stimulates demand more than supply. Inventory falls with rates.
This is… pic.twitter.com/c5n6Ntkrmm
— Mike Simonsen 🐉 (@mikesimonsen) December 16, 2023
Research supports this claim.
“In the US, 40% turn to social media for personal finance information.”
Yet the global average is 19% https://t.co/ar2FA2g8eW— Volkan (@VolkanIli) December 12, 2023
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