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On today’s show, we discuss:
- Comments on October Employment Report
- Is the Fed peaking too soon?
- Your ‘set it and forget it’ 401(k) made you rich. No more.
- Is the 60/40 portfolio a good investment now?
- Average is not the same as median…
- The secretive industry devouring the US economy
- The economy is great. Why are Americans in such a rotten mood?
- The average credit score just hit an all-time high – here’s how to make the most of yours
- US workers needn’t be so anxious about their next paycheck
- A viral video about her 9-5 left people enraged. She says they’re missing the point
- Who you calling dumb money? Everyday investors do just fine
- ETFantasmagoria
- The way you pay to buy or sell a home is about to change
- Real estate industry takes fresh hit with verdict on commissions
- Nevermind the 1%. Mini-millionaires are where wealth is growing the fastest
- What is the center of population?
Listen here:
Recommendations:
Charts:
Tweets:
We're finally seeing a real slowdown in the job market.
1) 150,000 jobs added (gov't made up 1/3)
2) Labor force went DOWN -201,000
3) 3.9% unemployment rate highest since early 2022
4) August & Sept. revised DOWN sharplyNothing to panic about. But it points to slower growth pic.twitter.com/3htiEnUbmO
— Heather Long (@byHeatherLong) November 3, 2023
The unemployment rate ticked up to 3.9% in October, just below the 2017-19 average. pic.twitter.com/1hhzBsgIEI
— Steven Rattner (@SteveRattner) November 3, 2023
“If the economy rolls over as I expect, the Fed is not going to cut rates 50 basis points. They’re going to cut rates 200 basis points,” says @DLineCap’s Jeffrey Gundlach pic.twitter.com/xTnOTqvedb
— CNBC's Closing Bell (@CNBCClosingBell) November 1, 2023
This is the 24th time the Russell 2000 closed at a 52-week low, then surged to its best 4-day rally in at least 3 months.
A year later, the small-cap index was higher 100% of the time with a median return of +25.6%. pic.twitter.com/gZNTBECMO9
— Jason Goepfert (@jasongoepfert) November 2, 2023
2-year low in percent of unprofitable companies in the Russell 2000 $IWM pic.twitter.com/nNoLt7Mn4K
— Mike Zaccardi, CFA, CMT 🍖 (@MikeZaccardi) November 3, 2023
Consumer sentiment (U of Mich) is lagging both consumer confidence (Conference Board) and Fintwit sentiment.
via Goldman Sachs pic.twitter.com/Tzy1ppFUJk
— Daily Chartbook (@dailychartbook) November 2, 2023
$2.99/gal is the most commonly seen #gasprice in the United States today, some 38,000 stations, or 25% of the nation's gas stations have this price or better, according to GasBuddy data. Check the app for the best price near you! pic.twitter.com/qy1mgdpdUW
— Patrick De Haan ⛽️📊 (@GasBuddyGuy) November 1, 2023
Gasoline prices have fallen for 35 straight days and for 43 of the past 45 days pic.twitter.com/eMSVn4fCYS
— Robert Burgess (@BobOnMarkets) November 2, 2023
Honestly TAMMY is pretty good, may use. I can’t overstate how much 5%+ yields in money market funds have changed behavior/flows this year. They like a giant vacuum cleaner. One trillion dollars and counting. https://t.co/C2ECvHi8f5
— Eric Balchunas (@EricBalchunas) November 1, 2023
All the people who said SBF would never be charged etc. because of his political donations.
Probably one of the clearest examples of what is a very common phenomenon, where the savvy people who want "the real story" tend to be the biggest dupes who fall for the dumbest ideas.
— Joe Weisenthal (@TheStalwart) November 3, 2023
$300m went into crypto funds this week. Biggest inflow in almost 18 months. pic.twitter.com/d1z3h31Kvc
— Tom Dunleavy (@dunleavy89) October 30, 2023
Redfin: Almost Third of Homes for Sale Are New Construction–the Highest Shr of Any 3Q on Record
Redfin: New Builds Are Taking Up Growing Shr of the Pie as Builders Attract Buyers With Concessions
Nationwide, 30.6% of U.S. single-family homes for sale in the third quarter were…
— *Walter Bloomberg (@DeItaone) October 31, 2023
"Of the 399 companies that have reported so far (80% of the S&P 500): Overall, 82% are beating estimates, and those that 'beat' are beating by a median of 7%." @fundstrat
— Sam Ro 📈 (@SamRo) November 3, 2023
B of A: “.. Remember waiting for a better entry point? .. S&P 500 consensus long-term growth expectations are near all-time lows – excluding the Magnificent 7 .. The probability of a positive surprise in higher beta stocks is high in our view ..” [Subramanian] $SPX pic.twitter.com/GkgawCv3ar
— Carl Quintanilla (@carlquintanilla) November 3, 2023
$EL is down 20% today after another disappointing earnings release, which means the stock is now ~75% off its all-time highs.
We just created this visual comparing the last five quarters' growth rates of both Estée Lauder and its main competitor $OR.PA: pic.twitter.com/ckvLrRnefU
— Quartr (@Quartr_App) November 1, 2023
Canada Goose, a luxury brand:
"Our outlook for the H2 2024 has come under pressure…As a result, we saw early momentum gathered in our Q2 2024 begin to slow noticeably in September"$GOOS: -7.1% PM pic.twitter.com/LAEPYdg4f8
— The Transcript (@TheTranscript_) November 1, 2023
$POOL CEO: "“New pool construction is likely to finish down, with units down 30% in 2023… Volumes on certain discretionary products, such as above-ground pools, heaters and cleaners reflected weakness, suggesting consumer hesitation on these more discretionary items"
— The Transcript (@TheTranscript_) October 31, 2023
You seen it! I’m ALLOWED to push my seat back!!!! pic.twitter.com/vTlH4D6AmH
— Barstool Sports (@barstoolsports) November 1, 2023
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