March 2014

An Ode to March 9, 2009

“If you’re emotional then you’ll buy at the top when everybody is euphoric and prices are high. Also, you’ll sell at the bottom when everybody is depressed and prices are low.” – Howard Marks

Euphoria: It’s So Hot Right Now

“When a mood of excitement pervades a market or surrounds an investment prospect, when there is a claim of unique opportunity based on special foresight, all sensible people should circle the wagons; it is time for caution.” – Galbraith

Millennials & The New Death of Equities

The infamous 1979 Businessweek cover story entitled “The Death of Equities” is widely viewed as one of the best contrarian indicators of all-time. Stocks went on to have one of the greatest bull markets in history not too long after this story was published. But when I read through the original article recently I was…

What if Henry Blodget is Right About the Stock Market?

“This is just another of an endless series of experiences over time that have demonstrated that the future of security prices is never predictable.” – Benjamin Graham Some high profile talking heads in the investment industry have been making the case that past averages of profit margins, earnings, P/E ratios and other valuation tools suggest…

The Way Way Back of Market Cycles

“Be very careful using the past to understand the future. Past multiples are only relevant to the degree to which the underlying drivers of value are consistent through time. In fact, many of these drivers have changed, greatly diminishing the utility of past averages.” – Michael Mauboussin In keeping with my recent theme about the…