Why Investment Advice Can Be So Confusing

It’s not simply the news or the data itself that makes things interesting when following the markets, but the discussion and reaction that they bring about from investors. Interpretation and perception become the most important element, especially since information is so easy to come by these days.

When Exotic Devices Create Exotic Problems

Vanity Fair has a fascinating article in the latest issue on airplane safety and how it affects pilot error. To make planes safer these days, engineers have designed automated systems that basically allow the planes to fly themselves.

Some Stocks Don’t Come Back

“If every stock you own is on the new high list, you’re a momentum guy. If every stock you own is on the new low list, you’re out of business.” – Leon Cooperman Mean reversion is one of the most powerful forces in all of finance. Above average performance is eventually followed by below average performance….

Would a Repeat of the 1987 Crash Really Be That Bad?

“The intelligent investor realizes that stocks become more risky, not less, as their prices rise, and less risky, not more, as their prices fall.” – Jason Zweig If you’re in the business of fear-mongering, one of the go-to moves to try to scare investors is to predict that the markets are looking eerily similar to…

What is a Bubble?

“The term bubble should indicate a price that no reasonable future outcome can justify.” – Cliff Asness There’s been a steady stream of bubble talk since the financial crisis. Everything that goes up in value ends up being called a bubble — stocks, bonds, gold, IPOs, biotech, Silicon Valley, etc. Most investors seem surprised more…

Enduring Lessons From the Financial Crisis

When asked what people would learn from the financial crisis, GMO’s Jeremy Grantham replied: In the short term a lot, in the medium term a little, the in the long term, nothing at all. That would be historical precedent. As they say, we don’t want to let a crisis go to waste. Here are some…

Mutual Funds From Good to Great

“The paradox of skill says that when the outcome of an activity combines skill and luck, as skill improves, luck becomes more important in shaping results.” – Michael Mauboussin I recently wrote a post about how size is the enemy of outperformance. My main point was that extreme levels of outperformance become nearly impossible to pull…

Excuses for Underperforming the Market

Earlier this month the Wall Street Journal posted an excerpt from a letter written by a hedge fund manager to his investors stating the reasons (see also: excuses) he had to close down his fund. Here’s part of the rant: Post-2008 monetary policies have rewarded the beta investor who’s gone “all in” on market risk and themes,…