Things are starting to get interesting in the markets. Over the past couple of weeks, there’s been a constant barrage of bad news coming out about Greece, China, and Puerto Rico. Then yesterday the New York Stock Exchange decided to have a “technical glitch” and shut down for a few hours. Regardless of whether this…
My Thoughts on Gary Antonacci’s Dual Momentum
In my previous post I took a look at why the momentum factor has worked historically in the markets. The past numbers are impressive, but there are some drawbacks, including high turnover, tax inefficiency, large drawdowns and high costs associated with momentum strategies. It’s also a fairly counter-intuitive approach to get comfortable with. Dual Momentum, a book by…
Why Momentum Investing Works
In a recent Q&A with Patrick O’Shaughnessy, I said the following when asked about the momentum factor: I’m a huge fan of the momentum factor, mainly for its diversification benefits. It’s also the least understood of the well-known risk factors. I’ve done a ton of work on momentum in my day job, but haven’t been…
Uncharted Territory in the Fed Funds Rate Cycle
It’s now been nine years since the Federal Reserve last raised the fed funds rate. The speculation grows by the week about when the first rate hike since 2006 will occur. Every economic data point that gets released is immediately put into terms about what it means for the potential for a rate hike.
Finance Twitter’s Reaction to This Week’s Jobs Report
Dissecting the monthly jobs report has turned into something of a Finance Twitter tradition. Once a month, the nonfarm payroll (NFP) numbers are released by the U.S. Department of Labor and the results receive as much attention in the finance community as the latest John Oliver segment gets from explainer journalists.
15 Problems With Real World Portfolios
Investment strategies have a tendency to look beautiful on paper and in marketing pitch books. You get to see return numbers, risk-adjusted results and pretty looking graphs that show how great things were in the past. I’ve yet to come across a strategy that couldn’t be dressed up and made to look appealing by a…
Reader Q&A on My New Book
This post is probably a little self-serving, but I’ve received a number of questions about my book from readers and wanted to address the most asked questions here. What’s the difference between the book and your blog? The general theme is very similar. The blog has been a great place for me to learn and develop…
What if Risk-Free Returns Slowly Go Away?
In the past week I’ve read three different takes on the future of interest rates that really made me think about their direction over the very long-term. 1. The first comment was a tweet from venture capitalist Marc Andreessen in reference to a discussion about the current low level of short-term interest rates being set…
Letting Go of the Why
Watching the drama unfold over the past couple of weeks in the Greece should make a few things clear to investors. First of all, no one really knows what’s going on in the markets. I remember listening to a very well-respected European hedge fund manager give a talk in 2011 about the potential for a…
Delusions of Future Outperformance
“The market is not a very accommodating machine; it won’t provide high returns just because you need them.” – Peter Bernstein