Animal Spirits: It Was a Very Good Year

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Tweets/Bluesky

I've been arguing that 6% to 7% would be the "new normal" for mortgage rates. The so-called "neutral rate" has been moving up. If we add 2% inflation, 2%+ real rate, a normal yield curve, and 30-year rates 175bp above the 10-year yield … that puts mortgage rates in the 6% to 7% range.

— Bill McBride (@calculatedrisk.bsky.social) 2024-12-27T23:20:18.049Z

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