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On today’s show, we discuss:
- Memo From the Chief Economist: Lament of a Bear
- Beware CAPE Crusaders: Limitations of Shiller’s Ratio in Modern Market Valuation
- CAPE Fear: Why CAPE Naysayers Are Wrong
- Global Wealth Report 2024
- Behind Bitcoin’s Rally Is a Simple Fact: Supplies Are Limited
- A Michigan roofer’s smart plan to end the housing crisis
- The 50 Best Airplane Movies, Ranked
Listen here
Recommendations:
Charts:
Tweets/Bluesky:
The S&P 500 is up 29% in total this year
The worst peak-to-trough drawdown was just 8.4%
There have been 56 new all-time highs
That's a new high 1 out of every 4 trading days
There have been just 3 down days of -2% or worse
What a year
— Ben Carlson (@awealthofcs) December 5, 2024
The bubbles on the left are US publicly traded companies that are less than 50 years old with a market capitalization of $10B+. The bubbles on the right are the same but for the EU.
Great visual from @amcafee's newsletter. pic.twitter.com/9cJOERV0Mw— César A. Hidalgo (@cesifoti) December 2, 2024
Here's a time-lapse of net assets in single-stock leveraged long ETFs, broken down by reference stock. Aggregate net assets have risen 12x over past 12 months. Single-stock ETFs referencing NVDA ($7.4B), MSTR ($4.8B), and TSLA ($4.0B) account for ~85% of all assets. pic.twitter.com/nU1yNe1ZQe
— Jeffrey Ptak (@syouth1) December 2, 2024
Blackrock, Fidelity, Microstrategy and the U.S. Government among the top 10.
Just as Satoshi intended. https://t.co/Fxh3xHhQyr
— Tyrone V. Ross Jr. (@TR401) December 7, 2024
Largest amount of liquidations since the FTX insolvency on $BTC now spot buyers stepping in hoovering up the liquidation cascade.
Thanks for playing pic.twitter.com/KeILGEPAhY
— McKenna (@Crypto_McKenna) December 5, 2024
Bitcoin really is proof that you don’t have to be right to make moneyEverything bitcoin ppl have ever predicted has been wrong…except the price going upIt’s actually kind of amazing(I say this w/no shade either, it’s impressive)
— Ben Carlson (@bencarlson007.bsky.social) 2024-12-05T13:20:06.598Z
I realize it's en vogue to parade around when your asset goes up. Just annoying seeing the "I told you back in 2014" posts when the stuff that people said in 2014 was totally off base lol.You can get rich being right for the wrong reasons, but don't act like a psychic.
— Jack Raines (@jackraines.bsky.social) 2024-12-05T13:19:46.206Z
Boy was this a sad thing to read. This is going to stick with me for a long time. https://t.co/RtugCrpkEZ pic.twitter.com/cJSfujnlGN
— Chris Vannini (@ChrisVannini) December 6, 2024
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