On today’s Talk Your Book, we are joined by Mike Simonsen, Founder and President of real estate analytics firm Altos Research (a firm acquired by HousingWire Media)
See here and here to learn more about Mike’s research on residential housing
On today’s show, we discuss:
- The beginnings of Mike’s real estate research business
- How housing data has affected the behavior of real estate market participants
- The effect rates have on real estate decisions
- Rates spur demand more than they affect supply
- A realistic scenario for a housing market correction
- Why refinancing takes so long
- A post-mortem on the iBuyer phenomenon
- How the realtor community is doing in 2024
Listen here:
Charts/Tweets:
Inventory
– Current Inventory: 677K single-family homes & 180K condos unsold.
– Weekly Change: Up 1.3% from last week.
– Peak Forecast: Expected to hit around 700K single-family homes in October.
– Yearly Comparison: Up 40% from last July.
– Last year had inventory spike late in… pic.twitter.com/YyB9o8k8Bo— Mike Simonsen 🐉 (@mikesimonsen) July 29, 2024
New Listings
– This Week: 68K new listings of single-family homes.
– Trend: Fewer sellers compared to earlier this year, but slightly more than last year. Only 4% more sellers this week than the same week a year ago.
– In the areas that have been leading inventory growth in… pic.twitter.com/UbqGarjECW— Mike Simonsen 🐉 (@mikesimonsen) July 29, 2024
Bonus Chart! Coming Soon Listings
Pre-market listings indicating future inventory.
Trend: Currently at very low levels, mirroring last year’s slow period.
Implication: No major surge in inventory expected later this year.4/8 pic.twitter.com/Ag4YKNTiQ9
— Mike Simonsen 🐉 (@mikesimonsen) July 29, 2024
Pending Home Sales 🏠
– Current Contracts: 65K new contracts for single family homes this week.
– Yearly Drop: 4.9% fewer than the same week in 2023.
– Sales Trend: No noticeable recovery, even with a slight dip in mortgage rates.Are buyers waiting for further rate declines or… pic.twitter.com/gMsgbUVvH6
— Mike Simonsen 🐉 (@mikesimonsen) July 29, 2024
Home Prices
– Median Asking Price: $450K, unchanged from last week and last year.
– New Listings: Priced at $419K, showing resilience in pricing.
– Contract Prices: Median of $395K, about 3.5% higher than last year.
– Future Trend: Home prices are stable but may see slight… pic.twitter.com/3jZaK4urvo— Mike Simonsen 🐉 (@mikesimonsen) July 29, 2024
Price Reductions
– Current: 39% of homes have had a price cut.
– Weekly Change: Pace of reductions has slowed to 30 basis points.
– Comparison: Much slower than the spikes seen in 2022.
– Future Outlook: If we get lucky and mortgage rates drop further, we would see subsequent… pic.twitter.com/YScxqiMEem— Mike Simonsen 🐉 (@mikesimonsen) July 29, 2024
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