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On today’s show, we discuss:
- Are Social Media Influencers Out Influencing Financial Advisors?
- Why Economies Haven’t Slowed More Since Central Banks Hit the Brakes
- Home prices increase again in April, signaling a recovery
- Financial storm bears down on US commercial real estate
- Film and TV Profits Have Collapsed Over the Last Decade
- Pedestrian Traffic Fatalities by State: 2022 Preliminary Data
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Talk about emotional.
Through the 4th to last trading day of the first half, the Nasdaq is on pace for its 3rd best first half on record. Last year was the second worst at this point. pic.twitter.com/jh2HiMZnzG
— Bespoke (@bespokeinvest) June 28, 2023
Top 10 ETF inflows 1st half 2023…
VOO +$20.8bil
TLT +$12.1bil
JEPI +$10bil
QUAL +$9.9bil
VTI +$8.9bil
SPY +$8.7bil
BND +$8.6bil
AGG +$8.6bil
IEF +$6.2bil
SQQQ +$5.3bilTop ETF outflow = ESGU -$7.1bil
Total ETF inflows = nearly $220bil (approx $120bil equity & $100bil FI)
— Nate Geraci (@NateGeraci) July 2, 2023
The Powell Fed has focused on three baskets of core inflation.
What happened to them in May
3-month annualized rates
Core goods: +3.2% (vs 2.1% in Apr)
Housing: +6.4% (vs 7.2%)
Core services ex-housing: +3.9% (vs 4.4%%)Core PCE: +4.1% (vs. 4.2%)https://t.co/ifZqSq0lWn pic.twitter.com/xZiW7lYpwT
— Nick Timiraos (@NickTimiraos) June 30, 2023
* Corn hits lowest since Oct 2021
* Soybeans lowest since Dec 2021@CNBC #Deflation 👀 pic.twitter.com/L9XsVONAHd
— Carl Quintanilla (@carlquintanilla) June 28, 2023
The “good old days” were much harder.
In 1865 the average British worker
worked 124,000 hours over their life (like the US & Japan). In 1980, only 69,000 hours, despite living longer. Since then, it dropped slower, by 6%.We went from spending 50% of our lives working to 20%! pic.twitter.com/dhMq47Xbg1
— Ethan Mollick (@emollick) June 28, 2023
The best recession ever continues. 💪👀
May durable goods 1.7% vs -1.0%.
May new home sales 763K from 680K, versus 675K.
The Conference Board’s June consumer confidence index jumped to 109.7 from 102.5, versus 104.0.
— Ryan Detrick, CMT (@RyanDetrick) June 27, 2023
The Airbnb collapse is real.
Revenues are down nearly 50% in cities like Phoenix and Austin.
Watch out for a wave of forced selling from Airbnb owners later this year in the areas hit hardest by the revenue collapse. pic.twitter.com/xjGkj7bFC5
— Nick Gerli (@nickgerli1) June 27, 2023
A viral tweet about STR data! Lets get some facts straight… There is not a collapse in RevPAL happening. Is it down in 2023? YES. Is it down 40%? NO.
I've pulled the numbers from @airdna's dataset mirroring the analysis done by @nickgerli1. What do we find? The average… pic.twitter.com/HRjIXZk9p9
— Jamie Lane (@Jamie_Lane) June 28, 2023
Lordstown Motors has declared bankruptcy.
Company was valued over $5 billion in 2021.https://t.co/HBe4LIFsv0 pic.twitter.com/bjdW1Sae3j
— Joe Weisenthal (@TheStalwart) June 27, 2023
New report finds that over 8,000 pedestrians were killed on US roadways in 2022.
Jimmy Carter was president the last time that happened.https://t.co/k6Lak5eZC3 pic.twitter.com/FuMwGTdFi1
— David Zipper (@DavidZipper) June 22, 2023
"You cannot talk about late cycle dynamics with housing turning up and inventories likely to follow. There will be no recession in the next six months, and it is increasingly likely that we’re not seeing one in the next year either." https://t.co/hWDXcoJXzT
— RenMac: Renaissance Macro Research (@RenMacLLC) June 26, 2023
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