Today’s Animal Spirits is brought to you by YCharts:
See here for YCharts Highlights, Lowlights, and insights from 1H 2022
On today’s show we discuss:
- AQRs New Rules of Diversification
- JPMs Guide to the Markets
- Is labor hoarding causing the low layoff numbers?
- Empire State manufacturing survey
- Is America’s job market too good?
- Insights into the inflation print
- Disney inflation
- Home price correction by geography
- Pitchbooks US VC Valuations Report
- a16z investing in Adam Neumanns Flow
- COIN earnings
- DIS earnings
- The Science of Hitting on Disney
- The Science of Hitting on Airbnb
- Social Security COLA for 2023
- Millennials are spending money on name-brand things
- The upper-middle-class issue
- Blackrocks Bitcoin private trust
- Supply glut in bicycles
Listen Here:
Recommendations:
- Michael Santoli on The Long View podcast
- The Offer
- The Kid Stays in the Picture by Robert Evans
- Black Bird
- Bodies Bodies Bodies
- Bone Tomahawk
Charts:
Tweets:
So it’s fun that we can now say something that’s never happened before is going to happen.
Either:
-We get inflation down from elevated levels without a recession
-A 50%+ retracement of a major bear market selloff goes on to make new lowsSo you have to decide which it is.
— Conor Sen (@conorsen) August 12, 2022
Below is the NDR Daily Trading Sentiment Composite. We note that for shorter-term sentiment indicators, sometimes a sharp move higher from extreme pessimism to extreme optimism can be interpreted as a positive thrust indicator. pic.twitter.com/fnU7xXs1GE
— Day Hagan Asset Management (@DayHagan_Invest) August 10, 2022
In past 10mos, Elon has sold approx $32bil of TSLA stock…
More than half the market cap of Ford.
— Nate Geraci (@NateGeraci) August 10, 2022
Musk Sells $6.9 Billion of Tesla Shares After Saying He Was Done https://t.co/9LwOW4S1gV
— Peter Kafka (@pkafka) August 10, 2022
A great CPI report. If you use the unrounded numbers the headline was actually -0.02%, deflation! Core was +0.3%, the lowest since September 2021. The more intertial parts of core, eg rent, slowed too.
I only update a little based on 1 month but the update is a good one. pic.twitter.com/Uk2pgfiQcr
— Jason Furman (@jasonfurman) August 10, 2022
Used car & truck boom is fading quickly … prices +6.6% y/y, slowest gain since August 2020 pic.twitter.com/XDqcpjfHQg
— Liz Ann Sonders (@LizAnnSonders) August 10, 2022
Nominal wage growth still coming in hot 🔥
Fresh new @AtlantaFed Wage Growth Tracker data shows median wage growth at 6.7% in July, same as June. https://t.co/vTUOIf7yHX pic.twitter.com/pkLA4Wfhzb
— Nick Bunker (@nick_bunker) August 11, 2022
So far in August, we’re seeing largest monthly drop in average gasoline price since November 2008 pic.twitter.com/s1iyNxKis6
— Liz Ann Sonders (@LizAnnSonders) August 15, 2022
"Just 53% of S&P 500 companies had sales growth that cleared inflation; the most crowded, growth-y sectors (Comm. Svcs. and Tech) sported negative real sales growth." – BofA pic.twitter.com/YcbnlJn8cG
— Sam Ro 📈 (@SamRo) August 15, 2022
U.S. inventory remains 44% below pre-pandemic levels.
If there's a regional housing market you'd like me to pull, holler below 🏡📊https://t.co/WinkHpf0Df
— Lance Lambert (@NewsLambert) August 12, 2022
a16z has written its largest-ever check.
To Adam Neumann. https://t.co/bpzg3AuRW7 pic.twitter.com/0YAGiS5ntZ
— Myles Udland (@MylesUdland) August 15, 2022
In the last quarter, retail made up about half of the assets on Coinbase, but it generated nearly 95% of the trading fees https://t.co/k6h73p0Fc3 pic.twitter.com/7Ly5a5KhOz
— Joe Weisenthal (@TheStalwart) August 9, 2022
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