Animal Spirits: Soft Landing

Today’s Animal Spirits is brought to you by Masterworks:

See here to learn more about investing in contemporary art.

On today’s show we discuss:

Future Proof Festival

Listen here:

Recommendations:

No Time to Die
The Sea Beast
Luck
Devil in the White City
Prey
Michael Clayton movies
Billy Crystal
Shuffleboard
Amazons x-ray feature

Charts

Tweets

Uncomfortably hot jobs report. 528K jobs added & unemployment rate falls to 3.5%.

What worries me re inflation is avg hourly earnings were up at a 5.8% ar in July. June revised to 5.4% (up from 3.8%).

The wage moderation we were all discussing last month was simply wrong data.
— Jason Furman (@jasonfurman) August 5, 2022

We're back! pic.twitter.com/t0h6We0BnS
— Bill McBride (@calculatedrisk) August 5, 2022

Two-year low. [July 2020] https://t.co/69vlWMTe0R
— Carl Quintanilla (@carlquintanilla) August 1, 2022

Today's rise in the 10-year Treasury yield is the biggest in 5 years, save only two days at the height of the Covid lockdown, and the Monday in June when the Fed leaked its intention to hike by 75bps to the WSJ. pic.twitter.com/qvgzDsVWA6
— John Authers (@johnauthers) August 2, 2022

Mortgage rates just spiked.

The average 30-year fixed mortgage rate jumped from 5.05% to 5.5% over the past two days. pic.twitter.com/kc0dCh5RXG
— Lance Lambert (@NewsLambert) August 3, 2022

Shipping costs falling at incredibly rapid rate … y/y change in cost to ship 40ft container from Shanghai to Los Angeles has dropped to -32%, lowest since start of pandemic pic.twitter.com/ZOfxw9ZQTk
— Liz Ann Sonders (@LizAnnSonders) August 2, 2022

(WSJ) - U.S. gas prices have fallen for seven straight weeks and are approaching an average price of $4 a gallon, easing the pain of record-high fuel costs amid shrinking global demand for oil.@WSJ #OOTT https://t.co/6MmamN5QTh
— Carl Quintanilla (@carlquintanilla) August 4, 2022

US average #gasprices are now seeing the second largest 60-day decline on record, after seeing the largest 60-day incline on record. The largest 60-day decline was $1.84/gal on 11/28/08. The largest 60-day incline was $1.06/gal on 3/10/22. The current 60-day drop is 90c/gal. pic.twitter.com/KYzcsOzQ0V
— Patrick De Haan ⛽️📊 (@GasBuddyGuy) August 6, 2022

U.S. CONSUMERS' MEDIAN 5-YEAR INFLATION OUTLOOK DECLINED TO 2.3% FROM 2.8% IN JUNE -NY FED

U.S. CONSUMERS SEE HOME PRICES UP 3.5% IN THE NEXT YEAR, DOWN FROM 4.4% IN JUNE -NY FED https://t.co/iYfreR8vho
— *Walter Bloomberg (@DeItaone) August 8, 2022

More ammunition for a monetary policy pivot? According to data from the New York Fed, three year ahead median inflation expectations fell to 3.18, the lowest since April 2021. In the short-run, much of the drop in expectations driven by food and gasoline. pic.twitter.com/A3FTMbFVUi
— RenMac: Renaissance Macro Research (@RenMacLLC) August 8, 2022

Percentage of mortgages with negative equity pic.twitter.com/d5KCZsZKGH
— Sam Ro 📈 (@SamRo) August 7, 2022

Over the past 4 days, the average 30-year fixed mortgage rate went from:

5.05% —> 5.5% —> 5.15% —> 5.45%
— Lance Lambert (@NewsLambert) August 5, 2022

If you are planning a RIF, & haven't executed yet, please see this as a lesson. RH did 9% in April, & and now 23%. 5-10% RIFs are "all of the pain, & none of the gain." And are FREQUENTLY followed by 20-30% RIFs later. If you are going to do it, try do do it only once. https://t.co/WRTiCWpxyE
— Bill Gurley (@bgurley) August 2, 2022

Just another fun reminder that Morgan Stanley paid $13 billion for E*Trade less than 2 years ago... https://t.co/43emvNZtaw
— Thornton McEnery (@ThorntonMcEnery) August 2, 2022

Net deposits up $5B, but AUM down from $93B to $64B = an asset weighted return of roughly -35% in the quarter across all of their clients… incredible https://t.co/ppzPV7yYZ9 pic.twitter.com/KVUOftehsm
— Jake (@EconomPic) August 2, 2022

MEME stocks are back pic.twitter.com/idDmKUAqQ6
— Danny Kirsch, CFA (@danny_kirsch) August 8, 2022

Working in crypto is an incredible, never-ending education in how far the pendulum can swing pic.twitter.com/ecTQKZAGD6
— Hunter Horsley (@HHorsley) August 5, 2022

BlackRock to offer crypto access to institutional clients through Coinbase dealhttps://t.co/MrwpwLLoJ5
— The Block (@TheBlock__) August 4, 2022

SCOOP: Brevan Howard has raised more than $1 billion for its flagship crypto vehicle.

This is the largest crypto hedge fund launch yet.

Latest by @michael_bodley https://t.co/218LJpXTG5
— Blockworks (@Blockworks_) August 4, 2022

Martin Scorsese and Leonardo DiCaprio's long-in-the-works 19th century serial killer drama "Devil in the White City" has found its lead in Keanu Reeves. Hulu has given the project a straight-to-series order. https://t.co/0SSqHHQlLV
— Variety (@Variety) August 4, 2022

Check out our t-shirts, stickers, coffee mugs, and other swag here.

Subscribe here:

On today’s show we discuss:

Future Proof Festival

Listen here:

Recommendations:

Charts

Tweets

BEN CARLSON, CFA

Get Some Common Sense

Categories

On today’s show we discuss:

Future Proof Festival

Listen here:

Recommendations:

Charts

Tweets

Now go talk about it.

More from my site

BEN CARLSON, CFA

Get Some Common Sense

Categories

Get a Full Investor Curriculum: Join The Book List

Get a Full Investor Curriculum:
Join The Book List