I get a lot of questions from investors, advisors, and institutions for my thoughts about alternative assets. I get it. Valuations in U.S. stocks are high. Interest rates are low. Investing globally can be a scary proposition for some. People have an aversion to volatility. The strategy I’m asked about more than any other is…
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Return Expectations Going Forward
A few months ago I was asked to write for Bloomberg to help provide context and perspective around the financial markets. I’m really excited about the opportunity. I’ve been writing there roughly once a week since mid-January. I have to wait a few weeks after my pieces run on Bloomberg to re-publish here so occasionally…
How the 1973-74 Bear Market Changed How People Judge Investment Performance
Jonathan Clements wrote my favorite personal finance book of 2016 — How to Think About Money. People have an odd relationship with money because we spend most of our time stressed out about it. This book does a great job of trying to get people into the right frame of mind about their financial decisions and using…
Some Things That Haven’t Been Around Very Long
I just finished reading David McCullough’s critically acclaimed book, The Wright Brothers. Going into it I didn’t really know too much about the fascinating story beyond that historic first flight at Kitty Hawk in 1903. That first flight garnered little fanfare at the time (most people just didn’t believe it was possible), but the innovation that followed…
Investment Management vs. Financial Advice
There’s never been a better time to be an investor. Expenses are coming down. It’s cheaper than ever to trade. Strategies that were once reserved for large institutional funds at exorbitant fees are now available to every investor through low-cost mutual funds and ETFs. The sheer amount of data and computing power available has completely leveled…
Knowing When to Break Your Own Rules
“[Checklists] catch mental flaws inherent in all of us—flaws of memory and attention and thoroughness. And because they do, they raise wide, unexpected possibilities.” – Atul Gawande Benchmark Capital’s Bill Gurley recently sat down to talk with Recode’s Kara Swisher on her podcast about the state of the venture capital world (he’s worried). He also shared…
Survivorship Bias Explained
Long Term Capital Management is a perfect example of how hubris can derail even the most brilliant of investors. The hedge fund was filled with PhDs and Nobel Laureates, but was highly leveraged while relying far too heavily on quantitative risk models that didn’t factor in the potential for unexpected events to occur. When Russia defaulted on…
How The Finance Industry Tricks You
One of the problems with the typical “trust me, we got this” attitude that you often see with financial professionals is the fact that most of the time their unwitting clients don’t really even understand what’s going on in their own portfolios. There are really no independent parties overseeing the overseers so a lot of…
Your True Risk
The increase in computational power has definitely made life easier for the finance industry. Tasks that once would have taken hours and hours to do by hand can now be done with the push of a button and calculated through algorithms or formulas on a spreadsheet. At times it feels like I have more market and…
Death By a Thousand Cuts
In the U.S., over $13 trillion of institutional capital relies on consultants for advice on which funds to invest in. Pensions, endowments, foundations and other large pools of money utilize consultants for a range of services, most notably picking different outside money managers to invest in on their behalf. Research shows that investment consultants as…