Roughly Right or Precisely Wrong

I have a love-hate relationship with historical market data. On the one hand, since we can’t predict the future, calculating probabilities from the past in the context of the present situation is our only hope when it comes to setting expectations for financial markets. On the other hand, an overemphasis on historical data can lead…

Animal Spirits: Business Optimism Crashes

On today’s show, we discuss regional bank failures, confidence in the Fed, international diversification, the V-shaped recovery in the labor market, vibes vs. data in the economy, the best company in the world, middle age, and much more!

Animal Spirits: Bear Market Lessons

On today’s show, we discuss never shorting junk food, a purgatory market, why spending isn’t slowing down, our first mortgage rates, the First Republic takeover, and much more!